A Once-A-Century ‘Superflare’ From The Sun Is Long Overdue, Scientists Say about study Sun-like stars produce superflares roughly once per century A survey of more than 56,000 sun-like stars reveals that “superflares” that could play havoc with electronics on Earth may happen every 100 to 200 years and the last big one to hit us was in 1859. Using data from NASA’s retired Kepler space telescope, Dr. Vasilyev’s team searched for stars with temperatures, sizes and brightness patterns similar to those of the sun. Out of 56,450 sun-like stars, they found that about one in 20 produced a superflare. The rate at which a superflare occurred, approximately once every 100 years, is at least 30 times as great as in previous measurements — or higher.

Maybe it's overdue, maybe it's not. The climatic change can be tightly connected with solar activity (compare the Maunder minimum) and the same effect responsible for weakening of geomagnetic field could also weaken solar magnetic field. My impression is that Carrington event was a reaction of Sun to the end of little ice age at the first half of 19.century, when the solar activity was also unusually low. Think of of superheating of fluid inside of microwave. The risk of sudden splash increases when the fluid gets quiet for a while, not when it's boiling less or more regularly. The global warming should be connected with period of increased solar activity, therefore the risk of sudden splash of solar plasma gets lower.

Therefore the "overdue" may be actually indicia of deeper connection of global warming and processes in the Sun - just not so straightforward as opponents of anthropogenic warming theory would like to see it. That is to say, the global warming at the Earth and another planets of solar system isn't direct consequence of increased solar activity, both phenomena merely share common origin instead. Mainstream science is good in revelation of such a type of connections neither, because its reductionist formal models primarily look after first order approximations, i.e. the linear regression. And when there isn't such a direct correlation, then science tends to reject it and ignore as a statistical noise for a quite while.

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