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„Europe is at war. Economic, energy and hybrid. There is no going back to what was: economically and politically. But it is difficult to win the war if you do not believe that it is also against us – says OKO.press a prominent political scientist

“The war in Ukraine has changed everything. There is no return to what was: politically and economically” – says OKO.press Iwan Krastew, political scientist, founder of the Bulgarian think tank Center of Liberal Strategies, author of the book “Light that has faded. How the West Failed His followers” (2020).

We are talking on Thursday 1 September 2022 during the European Forum in Alpbach, Austria. In two days, Prague and Cologne will be followed by thousands of protests against sanctions against Russia and rising life costs. The figure is very aptly diagnosed when Europe is in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The coming months will be really difficult. It is very difficult to wage war if you do not believe that it is also against us. And this is the fundamental difference between Russia and some of the European Union countries. Russia knows that it is at war with Ukraine and the whole West. Meanwhile, some politicians and societies in Europe are not aware that we are at war. It seems to them that we can choose: to engage or not, to help or not to help, that our role is to voluntarily support Ukraine. But it's a very misconception. Russia is at war against all of us and we must respond to that.”

We are talking about the failed myths of European integration, the energy and economic crisis that awaits us, and the strategies for the Polish opposition for the upcoming elections.

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Paulina Pacuła, OKO.press: During one of the lectures within the Forum, you said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine turned upside down the fundamental beliefs that we considered for granted in Europe: that after the traumatic experiences of World War II, there is no longer a large war on the continent; that economic cooperation makes the war unprofitable, so it is not threatened by states that have built a network of economic dependencies among themselves;

Ivan Krastew: Yes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has lied to the beliefs on which European integration was partly based. Today we are confronting a new reality. It seemed to us that after the tragedy of World War II, everyone already understood that a big war in Europe is no longer possible, even people like Putin. Meanwhile, the number of missiles that Russia is currently shelling Ukraine is comparable to the number of missiles used on the Eastern Front in 1941. Since the beginning of the invasion, more Russian soldiers have probably been killed than in 10 years of the war in Afghanistan.

For the past few decades, Europe has been dominated by the belief that building economic relations between countries is a way to build a lasting basis for peace. That countries that are economically dependent on each other do not fight wars, because it does not pay for anyone. Turns out it wasn't true. From today’s perspective, it is easy to look with great contempt and suspicion at what Germany has been doing in recent years by cooperating with Russia. But there's nothing strange about that. The Germans were convinced that it worked, because this was the experience of Europe, in this way Europe united. The Germans simply diversified the experience. Now it turns out that it does not work towards everyone, that Gazprom is not a company.

Over the past decades, we have also managed to convince ourselves that military power does not matter. But military power does not matter primarily to those who do not.

Now Europe is beginning to increase arms spending, Member States want to strengthen their armies, because they feel that they must. But that’s not enough, we need a cultural change. One of Europe’s greatest success is that we have raised generations of people who have believed that war is impossible – I say this without any sarcasm. Now we're gonna try to convince them to join the army. It won't be easy.

But that's not all. The war in Ukraine has also changed relations between Western and Eastern Europe. The result is that Europe’s centre of gravity has shifted a little more to the east. Countries such as Poland could benefit greatly from this, because their voice is much more heard, they play a huge role supporting people fleeing the war from Ukraine, they understand the mentality of the Russians much better. But the Polish government does not seem to see this possibility at all – as if it were not able to enter into any constructive dialogue in the European forum.

During many sessions, the Forum received comments from politicians about the extraordinary solidarity of the EU primarily at the beginning of the war. Cracks are increasingly visible today. More and more politicians are questioning the legitimacy of sanctions. Slovenian Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon said in relation to the sanctions that “in the long term, one must consider who suffers more of all this – Russia or Europe”. And yet the sanctions are our response to the crime of aggression committed by Russia, our solidarity with Ukraine, it is an attempt to cut off funding for the aggressor. And yes, they hurt, but there is no other way.

It is very difficult to wage war if you do not believe that it is also against us. And this is the fundamental difference between Russia and some of the European Union countries. Russia knows that it is at war with Ukraine and the West. Meanwhile, some politicians and societies in Europe are not aware that we are at war. It seems to them that we can choose: to engage or not, to help or not to help, that our role is to voluntarily support Ukraine. But it's a very misconception. Russia is at war against all of us, we must respond to it.

Normally, during the war, the external threat is a very important factor in mobilizing societies. This can be seen in Ukraine, and you can also see it in Russia. But economic war does not have such an effect. In Europe, you can see it as on the hand. Some seem to think as if politicians who could not arrange relations with Russia were responsible for the problems in Europe. Already today, we see people taking to the streets in protest against sanctions – as if their abolition was to make Russia stop using gas terror.

We have months of protest. Yellow vests across Europe, because in Europe there are many people for whom the rising costs of living are a threat to financial survival. The political effect of this situation may be completely devastating for us, because there will always be those who – without necessarily having competences and good will – will want to gain politically from this crisis.

To cope with rising energy prices, European governments will have to spend up to twice as much as they spend on counteracting the effects of Covid-19. This is a lot of money. A huge social solidarity will be necessary to survive this time. Governments will need gigantic measures to protect people and markets. The proof that Russia was preparing for this war for a really long time is that when Europe spent a lot on aid programs during the pandemic, Russia was saving as much as it could: Russian foreign exchange reserves increased by about 30 percent during this time.

You also said that in the face of the war in Ukraine, Europe must “consolidate its sphere of influence”. So how is it? Are we guided by values, or do we divide the world into spheres of influence?

We are guided by values, because our sphere of influence includes those who want, not those who apply a gun to their temples. But Europe really needs to make order in its backyard. Ukraine will not enter the Union for a long time, because a country that does not control its territory will not be able to carry out reforms in accordance with the treaty requirements. But Europe should already use all possible resources today to integrate Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and consolidate its influence in the Balkans. This is not the time to switch to small. Either we want to be the most important geopolitical force in the region, or we don’t. And that's what it's going to be obliging. This integration should be real and should continue.

But it won't be easy either. Let’s see what is happening with Poland. In the European arena, there is a certain tear between the requirement of cohesion of the European legal space, compliance with the rule of law, and cooperation with Poland for geopolitical purposes. Poland is crucial for the geopolitical importance of Europe.

There will be no geopolitically strong Europe without Poland, but it will not be strong, consistent in terms of EU standards if the eyes are closed to breaking the rule of law.

This is not easy and Europe is facing it today. That is why I really do not envy those who are making decisions in the EU today. Because it will not be a choice between good and evil, it will be trading in values.

The Polish government is still setting Poland in the position of the lonely island. Anti-EU rhetoric is exacerbating both national and European forums. In relations with Germany, the subject of war reparations for losses during World War II is again drawn up. And it would seem that in the face of the external threat posed by Russia, this negative rhetoric towards EU partners will be somewhat mitigated, that cooperation would be more important. A little on the basis that you have to choose how many fronts fights, because you can not fight everyone at once.