I'm hopefull

submitted by Rakean93Identitarian socialist from self.debatealtright

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[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

If you are confident, then I will trust your figures. I have to wonder how the rest of the war will go if these figures are correct. Would we see a collapse of the Ukrainian army and a Russian drive to Lviv? It's something worth thinking about.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Ukrainian army won't collapse unless it receives a major blow and Russia lacks the troops to deliver one. My estimation is that Russia needs to mobilize 600,000 men and assemble 20 divisions to decisively rout the Ukrainian army and overrun everything east of the Dnieper.

Reservists take time to train and Russians have started training reservists since January. It's believed that the reservists and the new battalions will be ready by September and in September, Putin will formally declare war.

They've already undergone an industrial mobilization of sorts and are cranking out tanks, artillery, shells, drones, and missiles in rapid order. They're rumored to be building 80 T-90M tanks every month and it's said they've built 48 heavy UCAVs since the start of the war. Kalibr missile production was doubled for the last three years and production never ceased once. There have been major hiring drives in military industries like UEC Saturn which makes engines for missiles and jets.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Interesting. I wasn't expecting to hear that at all. My impression was that the current style of warfare the Russians are using would be sufficient to take all of eastern Ukraine by December.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The frontline is too long. It's as long as the distance between Hamburg and Naples. Impossible for 200,000 men to properly man, far less advance against.

Russians weren't pushed out of North Ukraine or Kiev. They left in order to concentrate their forces and shorten the line.