The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash

Their recent clashes with India prove this, PLA soldiers have very low morale and no motivation. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan with its geographic difficulties will be more difficult than Normandy and I don't know that they have what it takes. The thing that'll prevent China from following through with this isn't really the US's deterrence but the consequences of sending so many men into that meat grinder, especially in a country where families only have one son to secure their future. Plus China is not an independent country at all when it comes to food and supplies and if it goes this far then there would be consequences economically.

I'd say China won't be ready to make such an invasion until after 2050 or so