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[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Make that 5. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and at least 4 are unavailable at any time due to maintenance. A further two will be kept in the pacific and atlantic coasts of the US to guard against threats, leaving them with 5 aircraft carriers that deploy a maximum of 160 F/A-18 Super Hornets. Those aircraft also undergo maintenance rigors so at any moment at most the US will be able to deploy 110-120 fighters over the skies of Taiwan.

The hornets have a combat range of 700 km and the US carriers will have to operate at least 400-500 km off the coast of Taiwan to evade the threat of air launched cruise missiles, coastal anti-ship missile batteries, Chinese missile boats and corvettes and hunter killer submarines.

The Chinese in contrast have at leats 900 4.5 Gen fighters in their arsenal and the distance from the Chinese coast to Taiwan is about 230-260 km.

So at any given time, the US air force will be outnumbered at least 5-1 over the skies of Taiwan. The Taiwanese air force on the other hand will likely be destroyed on the ground on the first day by Chinese hypersonic and ballistic missile strikes.

So, the odds of the US preventing a Chinese conquest of Taiwan by purely conventional means are slim. The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash, while the US is a total chad with brave soldiers, excellent officers and perfectly functioning equipment.

While this scenario looms large in neocon fantasies, I think the reality is starkly different. We see Chinese competence in every field of human endeavor, be it governance, construction, science or engineering. They built a skyscraper in 19 days for fuck's sake!

While the US, I think we know the score.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash

Their recent clashes with India prove this, PLA soldiers have very low morale and no motivation. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan with its geographic difficulties will be more difficult than Normandy and I don't know that they have what it takes. The thing that'll prevent China from following through with this isn't really the US's deterrence but the consequences of sending so many men into that meat grinder, especially in a country where families only have one son to secure their future. Plus China is not an independent country at all when it comes to food and supplies and if it goes this far then there would be consequences economically.

I'd say China won't be ready to make such an invasion until after 2050 or so