Will the next American war be in Iran?

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from self.debatealtright

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[–]Lugger 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Having the military capacity to defeat China and prevent China from taking Taiwan...

Why would the U.S. care about this shitty little island so much, by the way? Can you imagine how much effort the government will have to put to justify the troops fighting and dying to stop those evaaal Chicoms from conquering a tiny piece of land that 99% of the Americans wouldn't be even able to find on a map?

That's nonsense. And the all-out military conflict between the U.S. and China is impossible for yet another reason — both countries possess a very large number of nuclear missiles; if the war broke out, it would be the end of the world as we know it.

[–]TheJamesRocket 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

So, the Neocon jingoist returns to gift us with more of his hot takes...

Why would the U.S. care about this shitty little island so much, by the way? Can you imagine how much effort the government will have to put to justify the troops fighting and dying to stop those evaaal Chicoms from conquering a tiny piece of land that 99% of the Americans wouldn't be even able to find on a map?

The U.S. has valid strategic reasons for protecting Taiwans sovereignty. They are the 'cork in the bottle' that keeps China contained within the south China sea. Moreover, Taiwan is the only place where the U.S. can fight China in a conventional war without it immediately escalating into a nuclear conflict. If they don't make a stand here, they might not be able to make a stand anywhere else. The Americans are very arrogant about their military capabilitys, and are adamantly opposed to Chinas economic expansionism.

There is currently an ongoing debate about what the extent of the U.S. military commitment to Taiwan should be, and whether they are willing to actually get into a serious fight with China. There are many voices within the establishment who are calling for Biden to make a firm pledge to safeguard Taiwans security.

Calls Grow for Biden to Commit to Defending Taiwan

To deter war with China, US must commit to defend Taiwan

Beijing Accelerating Timeline for Possible Taiwan Invasion, Expert Warns

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

America won't have boots on the ground but they'll put an aircraft carrier or two down to block China's sea lane access.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Make that 5. The US has 11 aircraft carriers and at least 4 are unavailable at any time due to maintenance. A further two will be kept in the pacific and atlantic coasts of the US to guard against threats, leaving them with 5 aircraft carriers that deploy a maximum of 160 F/A-18 Super Hornets. Those aircraft also undergo maintenance rigors so at any moment at most the US will be able to deploy 110-120 fighters over the skies of Taiwan.

The hornets have a combat range of 700 km and the US carriers will have to operate at least 400-500 km off the coast of Taiwan to evade the threat of air launched cruise missiles, coastal anti-ship missile batteries, Chinese missile boats and corvettes and hunter killer submarines.

The Chinese in contrast have at leats 900 4.5 Gen fighters in their arsenal and the distance from the Chinese coast to Taiwan is about 230-260 km.

So at any given time, the US air force will be outnumbered at least 5-1 over the skies of Taiwan. The Taiwanese air force on the other hand will likely be destroyed on the ground on the first day by Chinese hypersonic and ballistic missile strikes.

So, the odds of the US preventing a Chinese conquest of Taiwan by purely conventional means are slim. The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash, while the US is a total chad with brave soldiers, excellent officers and perfectly functioning equipment.

While this scenario looms large in neocon fantasies, I think the reality is starkly different. We see Chinese competence in every field of human endeavor, be it governance, construction, science or engineering. They built a skyscraper in 19 days for fuck's sake!

While the US, I think we know the score.

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The only way I see the US winning is if the Chinese prove to be a total dud, i.e their soldiers are cowards, their officers are incompetent and their equipment is trash

Their recent clashes with India prove this, PLA soldiers have very low morale and no motivation. An amphibious invasion of Taiwan with its geographic difficulties will be more difficult than Normandy and I don't know that they have what it takes. The thing that'll prevent China from following through with this isn't really the US's deterrence but the consequences of sending so many men into that meat grinder, especially in a country where families only have one son to secure their future. Plus China is not an independent country at all when it comes to food and supplies and if it goes this far then there would be consequences economically.

I'd say China won't be ready to make such an invasion until after 2050 or so