you are viewing a single comment's thread.

view the rest of the comments →

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

My immediate election prediction (I'm very uncertain but this is outcome I feel will be most likely)

Biden will win by a slim electoral college margin but quite significantly in terms of popular vote, if Kanye does run he'll be around 1%-6% of the vote but I don't see him damaging Biden's chances really as media will push hard against him. Due to coronavirus, the results will be slightly delayed and some on Trump's side may make some noise but when the results are revealed Trump will fully submit and accept the result. During Trump's "lame duck" period, he'll pass some edicts benefiting Israel in his final act of loyalty. Although the media and Dems will be doing humiliating celebratory gloating, the Biden and Trump transition teams will play nice with each other. However, come inauguration Biden will turn fully hostile against Trump and openly condemn him.

Biden victory scenario predictions

  • Race riots will die down.

  • Boomers attempt a open carry protest like the lockdown protests against Biden on his inauguration but it will be nothing but a laughing stock and will be the symbolic beginning of the end for Trumpism.

  • His cabinet will definitely contain Buttigeg and Klobuchaur. I also believe he'll put Yang in there hoping to gain some popularity from it.

  • Biden and the Congress Dems will seek to prosecute Trump and much of his campaign team and associates. A few big names will be prosecuted, although I expect some to "retire" overseas. Trump may or may not succeed to flee and if not will be prosecuted in a high-profile trial. Trump's family, and Trump if he does succeed, will probably go to Israel or Russia.

  • Cold War 2.0 re-escalates with Russia and there will be at least two major escalations but it will most likely be sabre-rattling, I expect these to be a proxy war and a tense standoff which ends in nothing happening but causing some alarm for a few days (like before Trump's 2018 Syria strikes). Biden will be ambivalent towards China, mostly lifting the trade war and repairing relations but having occasional diplomatic spat as China re-asserts its sovereignty over Hong Kong and flexes its geopolitical muscles.

  • Borders will be relaxed and illegal immigration will increase to even higher levels than under Trump and de-facto amnesty will exist.

  • Either a gun control package will be passed or reparations to blacks will be given, it will be divisive but will pass with no problem.

  • Multiple CAREN Acts and police defunding across American cities.

  • The GOP leadership will do a 180° and blame the defeat on Trump's divisive rhetoric and racist populism, it will de-Trumpify and move towards McCainist "liberal" neoconservatism. All the grifters supporting Trump like Crenshaw or Hawley will do a u-turn as well for their 2024 presidential runs. A pro-Trump faction will remain though and Tucker Carlson will be its de facto spokesperson.

  • Biden will still be a good boy for Israel, no reversals of Golan or Jerusalem decisions and will still publicly suppport Israel against Iran and Hezbollah, although he won't be as much of a philosemite as Trump.

  • Major online censorship to prevent another Trump, anything that isn't McCain-style conservatism will be repressed and I expect 4chan will be blamed for a right-wing/incel shooting and closed down.

Trump victory scenario predictions

  • Race riots will continue and re-escalate, combining with anti-Trump protests, and will sporadically continue until soon after his inauguration.
  • Censorship will happen but not at Biden-level. Because there is no censorship, there will be "far-right" growth among white people in reaction to the George Floyd riots but won't be overall political significant at mainstream level.
  • More of same internal policy-wise, privatizations and he'll talk about the COVID recovery LGBT unemployment rates.
  • Will not be actively hostile to Russia, except tensions over Venezuela, but this will alienate Europe and there will be a three-way split in a NATO between America (and a now subservient UK), continental EU and Turkey. The continental EU will still be on-paper allied with America and moderately work with it but will mostly try build itself as a separate power.
  • Trump and China will escalate in their rhetorical war and Cold War 2.0 will be set as a dying USA vs China. There will be no major escalations however, and China will assert its sovereignty over Hong Kong and spread its influence.
  • Trump will launch a military action against Iran or Venezuela, it may not be major such as regime-change but it will be newsworthy.
  • Same old thing for Israel, billions of dollars and praise.
  • Immigration will continue at current pace, border wall will never be built as intended (just the "fence").
  • The Dems will believe that old white men don't get them elected and will move further left and embrace more and more identity politics.
  • By end of Trump's term, stage will be set for 2024 campaign and a large amount of GOP figures will run including Crenshaw, Pence, etc.

2024 prediction (regardless of who wins)

  • Assuming the most likely situation where America still exists and no global war happens, a Democrat will win the 2024 presidential election quite comfortably and that will fully establish Electoral Winter (I think this election is still competitive enough to not be called electoral winter even if Dems win). After this point, until the political dynamics of America change, the Democrats will dominate US federal politics and GOP will never win another presidential election.

[–]Aureus[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Oof. Very depressing, but I agree with the broad strokes.