CDC: Less Deaths In 2020 than 2019 or 2018

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[–]FediNetizen 8 insightful - 4 fun8 insightful - 3 fun9 insightful - 4 fun -  (20 children)

For whatever reason, right-wing fake news always seems to come in the form of a screenshot.

This screenshot claims to be quoting CDC data. But the actual CDC data shows that total deaths have been well above average since April.

[–]yetanotherone_sigh 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yep. What is the source of your data, OP? It's bullshit, that's what it is.

Thank you for posting an actual link to actual data.

[–]magnora7 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (15 children)

Yup there is about a 12% increase in deaths compared to a normal year. And a bad flu year normally has a 4% rise from normal. So it's 3x as bad as the flu.

[–]FediNetizen 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

The worst flu season in 40 years (2018) killed an estimated 70-80k. We're already at 4x that. And about 10x the number that die in a more typical flu season. And that's with masks & social distancing reducing rate of spread.

[–]magnora7 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I agree. The problem is that the hype is far beyond 3x-4x the hype of a bad flu year, and instead went in to full panic mode. I'm just asking for a response that is proportionate to the actual threat.

[–][deleted]  (1 child)

[deleted]

    [–]magnora7 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Oh I agree completely. /u/christnmusicreleases needs to not just post fake propaganda

    [–]fred_red_beans 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

    While there may have been an increase of deaths, I believe it is certainly questionable as to whether that is due to Covid-19 per the CDC issued guidelines on 3/24/20 stating that COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death

    Even with the amount of purported Covid-19 deaths, there really is no logic to the proportionality of the response to coronavirus vs any other cause of death:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    1,764,349 Deaths due to Coronavirus

    https://www.worldometers.info/

    • 4,940,735 Deaths caused by smoking this year
    • 2,471,926 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
    • 1,059,842 Suicides this year
    • 1,334,154 Road traffic accident fatalities this year

    You're just about as likely to die in a traffic accident, but we haven't yet completely restricted all vehicle traffic to prevent people from dying on the road.

    [–]FediNetizen 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

    When COVID-19 is a probable cause of death it is listed, yes. Do you think more people just happened to start dying when this pandemic came around? Look at the actual data, dude. Deaths are way above where they should be and have been since April when COVID-19 blew up. You get spikes like that from disease, or disaster.

    You're just about as likely to die in a traffic accident

    Maybe in 3rd world countries with shitty cars and "every-man-for-himself" drivers not obeying the laws. Here in the United States with modern safety features and drivers that (generally) follow traffic laws, we had 38k auto fatalities last year. COVID-19 has killed almost 9x that many in the last 8 months, and it will be well over 10x by the time a vaccine becomes widely distributed.

    By the way, that auto fatality number is with all the steps the government has taken over the years to address auto fatalities. We had a problem, and we addressed it, just like we're addressing this COVID-19 problem.

    [–]fred_red_beans 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    When COVID-19 is a probable cause of death it is listed, yes.

    No, "caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death" is not probable cause.

    If COVID Fatalities Were 90.2% Lower, How Would You Feel About Schools Reopening?

    On March 24th, the NVSS, under the direction of the CDC and National Institute of Health (NIH), instructed physicians, medical examiners, and coroners that COVID-19 would:

    be recorded as the underlying cause of death “more often than not;”

    be recorded as the cause of death listed in Part I of the death certificate even in assumed cases;

    be recorded as the primary cause of death even if the decedent had other chronic comorbidities. All comorbidities for COVID-19 would be listed now in Part II, rather than in Part I as they had been since 2003 for all other causes of death.

    This matters because the Part I causes of death are statistically recorded for public health reporting, while Part II does not hold nearly the same statistical significance in reporting. This March 24th NVSS guideline essentially allows COVID-19 to be the cause of death when the actual cause of death should be the comorbidity according to the industry-standard 2003 CDC Handbook.

    OK, just looking at the US:

    • as of today purported deaths from coronavirus 340,000
    • deaths from tobacco 480,000

    We still have yet to quarantine all smokers and/or outlaw tobacco.

    [–]FediNetizen 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Where are all the excess deaths coming from, then?

    [–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

    I agree, lots of things are clearly being attributed to covid that aren't covid. But also the overall death numbers are higher, so it's clear covid is having an impact. Like most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

    [–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

    I think the "middle" is often defined by false dichotomies.

    Given how Covid-19 deaths are being tabulated, I think it's questionable whether the increase of mortality is due to Covid-19, or to the induced desperation upon the population through the destruction of the economy, lockdowns, etc.

    For the great threat to humanity that Covid-19 has been made out to be, I have yet to see any data showing a statistically significant increase in overall mortality.

    [–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

    I think it's questionable whether the increase of mortality is due to Covid-19, or to the induced desperation upon the population through the destruction of the economy, lockdowns, etc.

    Could be. But that'd imply the suicide rate increase should make up that whole 12% excess deaths, which I don't think it is. It certainly makes up a portion of the increase, suicides are going up, but not enough to make up that whole 12%. Maybe 1/3 of it, I'd guess.

    For the great threat to humanity that Covid-19 has been made out to be, I have yet to see any data showing a statistically significant increase in overall mortality.

    Well the CDC itself shows about 12% higher deaths than normal (around 3 million US instead of the usual 2.7 million deaths) but it's not clear how much of this is attributable directly to covid, as you point out.

    [–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

    Interestingly, I find it hard to find useful overall mortality rate comparisons.

    US population 332,000,000

    340,000 covid deaths / 332,000,000 US pop = 0.1% of the population

    I assume you are referencing:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

    (a provided reference would be nice)

    I downloaded the following supporting csv file from the CDC:

    https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

    and totaled Observed Number for each year and got the following:

    • 2017: 16596939
    • 2018: 17121849 - 3.16% increase from previous year
    • 2019: 17204166 - 0.48% increase from previous year
    • 2020: 18155532 - 5.53% increase from previous year

    Although,

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

    shows deaths in 2018 at 2,839,205, so the data must be incomplete?

    I'm not finding any reference demonstrating a significant increase in death rate.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate

    [–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

    These are the numbers I find, and I agree it's oddly hard to find good numbers easily with search engines. Anyway:

    In 2017, a total of 2,813,503 resident deaths were registered in the United States—69,255 more deaths than in 2016

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm

    In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

    In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more deaths than in 2018.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm

    Then this page including the last 12 months up to June 2020, shows as having 3,038,000 deaths:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

    So once the tally for 2020 is fully in it will probably be around 3.1-3.2 million deaths in the US, or so. Which is about 300k excess from the normal 2.8 million deaths in the US, or an approximately 12% increase.

    [–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    None of those articles cite the total population value, but using:

    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

    to consider per capita death rate:

    • 2017 325000000 2813503 = .008657
    • 2018 327000000 2839205 = .008683 = 0.2% change from last
    • 2019 329000000 2854838 = .008677 = -0.0001% change from last
    • 2020 332000000 3200000 = .009639 = 11% change from last

    So, yes that data shows a 11-12% increase in death rate.

    Ultimately though, we're still talking about 0.1% of the population dying and it is not clear how much of that is actually due to Covid or other factors such as the "response" to covid.

    :)

    [–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Thanks for doing the per-capita analysis, that is a more accurate way to do it for sure. Glad to see that shows approximately the same ~11% increase.

    Yes a lot about this remains unclear. I think the "12-month ending in June 2020" numbers are interesting that they've obviously substantially increased, because that's only a 3 months after the responses to it started in March. So I think that would reflect more genuinely disease deaths, instead of the numbers now 9 months down the line that might include a lot more suicides and other "response to covid" deaths now that so many businesses have shut down and so on.

    [–]soundsalad 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Johns Hopkins says OP is right

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930

    https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

    [–]FreedomUltd 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    I read about something very much like this... probably this. What i read about was conservatives pushing data from 2019, with projections for 2020. Of course they weren't predicting a pandemic.

    [–]FediNetizen 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    It would make sense. In the image, 2017 and 2018 have exact numbers, and 2019 and 2020 both round off to the nearest thousand. Almost like the figures for those last two years were speculative or something.

    [–]Canbot 8 insightful - 3 fun8 insightful - 2 fun9 insightful - 3 fun -  (12 children)

    Fewer.

    This should be enough to convince anyone that this virus is not dangerous enough to justify the lockdowns. And yet it's not. It is so frustrating how stupid people are. And to top it off all the sheep are literally told that they are the intelligent ones for obeying and everyone who doesn't is stupid. Maybe the cull is for the best after all.

    [–]LarrySwinger2 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

    Don't get cynical. That's what they want. There are ways and we simply have to try harder. And think about how many people we have on our side. They'd have to keep their propaganda running indefinitely and people will eventually get fatigued of it anyway. On the other hand, think of how many people we have on our side, such as the scientists and doctors who are signing petitions against lockdowns, whistleblowers in hospitals, lawyers who are suing governments, etc. If we keep working on this together, eventually they will listen to us. And it works the other way around as well: once people realize they've been deceived about this, they'll be open to revising their view of a lot of other things as well. People haven't listened before, because it hasn't affected them enough personally. Eventually, human nature will kick in. People know deep inside that they shouldn't accept what's going on, and we can awaken that sentiment in them.

    But unto Cain and to his offering he had not respect. And Cain was very wroth, and his countenance fell. And the LORD said unto Cain, Why art thou wroth? and why is thy countenance fallen? If thou doest well, shalt thou not be accepted? and if thou doest not well, sin lieth at the door. And unto thee shall be his desire, and thou shalt rule over him.

    [–]Node 2 insightful - 3 fun2 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 3 fun -  (8 children)

    How is this not the 'elite' proving to the entire world that their plan to reduce the human population to 500,000,000 is the best way to proceed. "See, you're all fucking retards who should be eliminated"

    [–]killerjavi98 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

    Whose side are you on?

    [–]Node 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

    I don't see a particularly attractive side. Despite obvious manipulation and provocation, look at what the masses have allowed themselves to become. It's mostly just human cattle at this point.

    But the 'elites' are not exactly an attractive bunch either, because look at what they've created.

    “Side? I am on nobody's side, because nobody is on my side, little orc.”

    [–]killerjavi98 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    You might have given up on humanity. But there's always hope.

    [–]Node 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    I agree that hope exists. :)

    [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

    500,000,000. Well I wouldn't say no, as long as I wasn't one of the 500M of course. Certainly too many people on the planet now, can't get a decent drive on the open highway anymore.

    [–]christnmusicreleases[S] 3 insightful - 5 fun3 insightful - 4 fun4 insightful - 5 fun -  (1 child)

    I'm ok with eliminating people who want to eliminate others (minus myself). Just them, though.

    [–]Node 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

    Especially if they disagree, because they'd be wrong, and wrong people need to be eliminated.

    [–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Reducing the population... by reducing the population less than usual.

    [–]copenseethe 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    The point of this post is that there is no cull.

    [–]Canbot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    Yet. No one can claim to know what is in the works, all we can do is poke holes in the official narrative. And based on what lies they tell and what leaks are trustworthy you can speculate on intentions. So maybe no one is actually planning on doing anything that would change demographics, population growth, or harm anyone. But that is not something you can prove by simply showing that the current virus is not nearly as deadly as it is portrayed. It is clear that Bill Gates is a huge force behind the vaccine push, and he is on record as pushing for population control, his organization has been caught multiple times harming people with vaccines including sterilizing girls, and he claims to have developed the technology to alter the way your brain works using vaccines. He literally uses vaccines as a vector for attack and everyone is just ignoring that fact.

    There is a huge vaccine push that is coordinated by lots of extremely powerful people. This level of conspiracy suggests that the motivation is more than just money. Genocides are very common in human history. Anyone writing off the possibility of another one is a fool.

    [–]jykylsin2034 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

    Thank you for this reliable .txt excerpt, I'm sure it's totally real

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [deleted]

      [–]FediNetizen 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

      And this guy is a moderator, too.

      [–]Intuit 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      This can be argued as proof that the lockdowns, business shutdowns, and mask wearing were very effective and should be continued to reduce deaths in the future.

      [–]christnmusicreleases[S] 3 insightful - 5 fun3 insightful - 4 fun4 insightful - 5 fun -  (0 children)

      KILL ALL HUMANS! EXTERMINATE! EXTERMINATE!

      [–]killerjavi98 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (0 children)

      Death by Hunger > Death by Covid

      [–]Kyto113 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

      This is either extremely outdated or just blatantly lying...

      https://apnews.com/article/us-coronavirus-deaths-top-3-million-e2bc856b6ec45563b84ee2e87ae8d5e7

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

      [–]FediNetizen 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

      It's closer to lying than anything. I'm pretty sure these are projections the CDC made in 2019, before there was a pandemic on the horizon, that conspiratards acting in bad faith are trying to pass off as the actual numbers.

      Shit like this is exactly why fact-checkers exist. Because otherwise people fall for it and society collectively gets a little dumber.