CDC: Less Deaths In 2020 than 2019 or 2018

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[–]fred_red_beans 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

While there may have been an increase of deaths, I believe it is certainly questionable as to whether that is due to Covid-19 per the CDC issued guidelines on 3/24/20 stating that COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death

Even with the amount of purported Covid-19 deaths, there really is no logic to the proportionality of the response to coronavirus vs any other cause of death:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1,764,349 Deaths due to Coronavirus

https://www.worldometers.info/

  • 4,940,735 Deaths caused by smoking this year
  • 2,471,926 Deaths caused by alcohol this year
  • 1,059,842 Suicides this year
  • 1,334,154 Road traffic accident fatalities this year

You're just about as likely to die in a traffic accident, but we haven't yet completely restricted all vehicle traffic to prevent people from dying on the road.

[–]FediNetizen 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

When COVID-19 is a probable cause of death it is listed, yes. Do you think more people just happened to start dying when this pandemic came around? Look at the actual data, dude. Deaths are way above where they should be and have been since April when COVID-19 blew up. You get spikes like that from disease, or disaster.

You're just about as likely to die in a traffic accident

Maybe in 3rd world countries with shitty cars and "every-man-for-himself" drivers not obeying the laws. Here in the United States with modern safety features and drivers that (generally) follow traffic laws, we had 38k auto fatalities last year. COVID-19 has killed almost 9x that many in the last 8 months, and it will be well over 10x by the time a vaccine becomes widely distributed.

By the way, that auto fatality number is with all the steps the government has taken over the years to address auto fatalities. We had a problem, and we addressed it, just like we're addressing this COVID-19 problem.

[–]fred_red_beans 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

When COVID-19 is a probable cause of death it is listed, yes.

No, "caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death" is not probable cause.

If COVID Fatalities Were 90.2% Lower, How Would You Feel About Schools Reopening?

On March 24th, the NVSS, under the direction of the CDC and National Institute of Health (NIH), instructed physicians, medical examiners, and coroners that COVID-19 would:

be recorded as the underlying cause of death “more often than not;”

be recorded as the cause of death listed in Part I of the death certificate even in assumed cases;

be recorded as the primary cause of death even if the decedent had other chronic comorbidities. All comorbidities for COVID-19 would be listed now in Part II, rather than in Part I as they had been since 2003 for all other causes of death.

This matters because the Part I causes of death are statistically recorded for public health reporting, while Part II does not hold nearly the same statistical significance in reporting. This March 24th NVSS guideline essentially allows COVID-19 to be the cause of death when the actual cause of death should be the comorbidity according to the industry-standard 2003 CDC Handbook.

OK, just looking at the US:

  • as of today purported deaths from coronavirus 340,000
  • deaths from tobacco 480,000

We still have yet to quarantine all smokers and/or outlaw tobacco.

[–]FediNetizen 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Where are all the excess deaths coming from, then?

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

I agree, lots of things are clearly being attributed to covid that aren't covid. But also the overall death numbers are higher, so it's clear covid is having an impact. Like most things, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

I think the "middle" is often defined by false dichotomies.

Given how Covid-19 deaths are being tabulated, I think it's questionable whether the increase of mortality is due to Covid-19, or to the induced desperation upon the population through the destruction of the economy, lockdowns, etc.

For the great threat to humanity that Covid-19 has been made out to be, I have yet to see any data showing a statistically significant increase in overall mortality.

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I think it's questionable whether the increase of mortality is due to Covid-19, or to the induced desperation upon the population through the destruction of the economy, lockdowns, etc.

Could be. But that'd imply the suicide rate increase should make up that whole 12% excess deaths, which I don't think it is. It certainly makes up a portion of the increase, suicides are going up, but not enough to make up that whole 12%. Maybe 1/3 of it, I'd guess.

For the great threat to humanity that Covid-19 has been made out to be, I have yet to see any data showing a statistically significant increase in overall mortality.

Well the CDC itself shows about 12% higher deaths than normal (around 3 million US instead of the usual 2.7 million deaths) but it's not clear how much of this is attributable directly to covid, as you point out.

[–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Interestingly, I find it hard to find useful overall mortality rate comparisons.

US population 332,000,000

340,000 covid deaths / 332,000,000 US pop = 0.1% of the population

I assume you are referencing:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

(a provided reference would be nice)

I downloaded the following supporting csv file from the CDC:

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

and totaled Observed Number for each year and got the following:

  • 2017: 16596939
  • 2018: 17121849 - 3.16% increase from previous year
  • 2019: 17204166 - 0.48% increase from previous year
  • 2020: 18155532 - 5.53% increase from previous year

Although,

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

shows deaths in 2018 at 2,839,205, so the data must be incomplete?

I'm not finding any reference demonstrating a significant increase in death rate.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

These are the numbers I find, and I agree it's oddly hard to find good numbers easily with search engines. Anyway:

In 2017, a total of 2,813,503 resident deaths were registered in the United States—69,255 more deaths than in 2016

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm

In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more deaths than in 2018.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm

Then this page including the last 12 months up to June 2020, shows as having 3,038,000 deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

So once the tally for 2020 is fully in it will probably be around 3.1-3.2 million deaths in the US, or so. Which is about 300k excess from the normal 2.8 million deaths in the US, or an approximately 12% increase.

[–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

None of those articles cite the total population value, but using:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

to consider per capita death rate:

  • 2017 325000000 2813503 = .008657
  • 2018 327000000 2839205 = .008683 = 0.2% change from last
  • 2019 329000000 2854838 = .008677 = -0.0001% change from last
  • 2020 332000000 3200000 = .009639 = 11% change from last

So, yes that data shows a 11-12% increase in death rate.

Ultimately though, we're still talking about 0.1% of the population dying and it is not clear how much of that is actually due to Covid or other factors such as the "response" to covid.

:)

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thanks for doing the per-capita analysis, that is a more accurate way to do it for sure. Glad to see that shows approximately the same ~11% increase.

Yes a lot about this remains unclear. I think the "12-month ending in June 2020" numbers are interesting that they've obviously substantially increased, because that's only a 3 months after the responses to it started in March. So I think that would reflect more genuinely disease deaths, instead of the numbers now 9 months down the line that might include a lot more suicides and other "response to covid" deaths now that so many businesses have shut down and so on.