CDC: Less Deaths In 2020 than 2019 or 2018

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[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I think it's questionable whether the increase of mortality is due to Covid-19, or to the induced desperation upon the population through the destruction of the economy, lockdowns, etc.

Could be. But that'd imply the suicide rate increase should make up that whole 12% excess deaths, which I don't think it is. It certainly makes up a portion of the increase, suicides are going up, but not enough to make up that whole 12%. Maybe 1/3 of it, I'd guess.

For the great threat to humanity that Covid-19 has been made out to be, I have yet to see any data showing a statistically significant increase in overall mortality.

Well the CDC itself shows about 12% higher deaths than normal (around 3 million US instead of the usual 2.7 million deaths) but it's not clear how much of this is attributable directly to covid, as you point out.

[–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Interestingly, I find it hard to find useful overall mortality rate comparisons.

US population 332,000,000

340,000 covid deaths / 332,000,000 US pop = 0.1% of the population

I assume you are referencing:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

(a provided reference would be nice)

I downloaded the following supporting csv file from the CDC:

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

and totaled Observed Number for each year and got the following:

  • 2017: 16596939
  • 2018: 17121849 - 3.16% increase from previous year
  • 2019: 17204166 - 0.48% increase from previous year
  • 2020: 18155532 - 5.53% increase from previous year

Although,

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

shows deaths in 2018 at 2,839,205, so the data must be incomplete?

I'm not finding any reference demonstrating a significant increase in death rate.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

These are the numbers I find, and I agree it's oddly hard to find good numbers easily with search engines. Anyway:

In 2017, a total of 2,813,503 resident deaths were registered in the United States—69,255 more deaths than in 2016

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db328.htm

In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm

In 2019, a total of 2,854,838 resident deaths were registered in the United States—15,633 more deaths than in 2018.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db395.htm

Then this page including the last 12 months up to June 2020, shows as having 3,038,000 deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

So once the tally for 2020 is fully in it will probably be around 3.1-3.2 million deaths in the US, or so. Which is about 300k excess from the normal 2.8 million deaths in the US, or an approximately 12% increase.

[–]fred_red_beans 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

None of those articles cite the total population value, but using:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

to consider per capita death rate:

  • 2017 325000000 2813503 = .008657
  • 2018 327000000 2839205 = .008683 = 0.2% change from last
  • 2019 329000000 2854838 = .008677 = -0.0001% change from last
  • 2020 332000000 3200000 = .009639 = 11% change from last

So, yes that data shows a 11-12% increase in death rate.

Ultimately though, we're still talking about 0.1% of the population dying and it is not clear how much of that is actually due to Covid or other factors such as the "response" to covid.

:)

[–]magnora7 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thanks for doing the per-capita analysis, that is a more accurate way to do it for sure. Glad to see that shows approximately the same ~11% increase.

Yes a lot about this remains unclear. I think the "12-month ending in June 2020" numbers are interesting that they've obviously substantially increased, because that's only a 3 months after the responses to it started in March. So I think that would reflect more genuinely disease deaths, instead of the numbers now 9 months down the line that might include a lot more suicides and other "response to covid" deaths now that so many businesses have shut down and so on.