India has already been undergoing desertification slowly so by the time climate change has significantly changed the earth it'll probably be something like the sahara. The tfr has rapidly fallen though so climate refugees may be smaller in number compared to africa or latam. The major issue is stopping that flow really.

watch as China desperately seizes Siberia from Russia.

China's West and Northeast will be livable enough, if they retook Mongolia then they'd be set for a long time without need for Russian territory. They will probably try to take control of at least some of it if/when the current Russian regime collapses