A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Critical Resources

submitted by EthnocratArcheofuturist from self.debatealtright

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[–]Musky 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Living in the "Energy Corridor," you can't swing a cat without hitting a petroleum engineer and I always hear we have enough proven reserves for the next hundred years according to them.

We don't know where all the oil in the world is, and we're getting better at extracting oil that was previously uneconomical to exploit.

Although I'm not sure it matters. No country can ramp down their industry or military without being vulnerable to any nation who doesn't care to. We'll all have to run out together, and then we'll figure something else out or do without.

I'm also not sure you're getting the right idea from the chart of oil exploration, there's a number of reasons for that.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I always hear we have enough proven reserves for the next hundred years according to them.

I hate to be that guy, but that's just an anecdote. The study I linked says otherwise.

we're getting better at extracting oil that was previously uneconomical to exploit.

That doesn't change the fact that oil discoveries have been steadily declining for decades.

[–]Musky 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

that's just an anecdote

When I'd go shooting it was with people who had over a hundred years of combined experience in the oil industry. And that's just one day in the life. Unless they're freaking out about running out of oil, I'm not either. I'm going to trust the pros over your study, seems the prudent course.

That doesn't change the fact that oil discoveries have been steadily declining for decades.

Yes, but is that relevant at all. There's a lot of factors to oil exploration. They don't always want to look for new reservoirs.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

When I'd go shooting it was with people who had over a hundred years of combined experience in the oil industry.

Art Berman alone has 40 years of experience in the oil industry and he basically says what I'm saying. He's one of the sources on this topic I trust the most.

[–]Musky 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

He's a geologist, they're near the bottom of the totem pole, and on his site he claims to be able to predict markets. https://www.artberman.com I feel this is easily dismissed to the work of a huckster.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He's a geologist

A petroleum geologist with 40 years of experience in the industry. You have a bunch of anecdotal "engineers" whose existence I can't even verify.