all 15 comments

[–]jet199 4 insightful - 3 fun4 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 3 fun -  (3 children)

How old are you?

When I was at school our text books said oil would run out in 2015.

These predictions are not ever reliable.

They take into account growth but not the new tech which will come with that growth.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

How old are you?

35.

When I was at school our text books said oil would run out in 2015.

Hubbert himself said the US would reach peak oil by the 1970s, which happened. The shale bubble has revived American oil production, but it's a bubble nonetheless. It's ERoEI is too low and it's been propped up by massive amounts of debt. Hubbert also said that the world would reach peak oil by the 2000s, which, again, happened: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook

It's one of the reasons why the financial crisis of 2007–2008 happened. That crisis was partly sparked by an oil shock. The shale bubble pushed this date up by about a decade. Global peak oil now probably happened in November 2018.

By the way, Hubbert's predictions were about conventional oil. Shale oil is unconventional oil. So, technically Hubbert was spot-on.

These predictions are not ever reliable.

The data disagrees.

They take into account growth but not the new tech which will come with that growth.

Technology isn't energy.

[–]chadwickofwv 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

By 35 you should have realized all that shit is nothing but baseless propaganda. Same goes for the panic about "global warming" and recycling of paper and plastic.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Not sure if trolling or just stupid.

[–]TaseAFeminist4Jesus 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

LOL if we're anywhere near "out of lead" by 2030 I'll eat my hat. This is some bullshit.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

This is about extraction, not recycling. And are you just going to ignore all of the other data that was fairly accurate?

[–]TaseAFeminist4Jesus 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't trust any of it. I just picked the most obvious, stupid example.

Even if you really believe remaining lead in the earth's crust is truly that scarce, why would we suddenly extract it all? Mining lead is difficult and low-yield. Recycling it is easier. I frankly doubt there's much lead mining going on at all. What lead is still in the ground will sit there indefinitely.

[–]Musky 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Living in the "Energy Corridor," you can't swing a cat without hitting a petroleum engineer and I always hear we have enough proven reserves for the next hundred years according to them.

We don't know where all the oil in the world is, and we're getting better at extracting oil that was previously uneconomical to exploit.

Although I'm not sure it matters. No country can ramp down their industry or military without being vulnerable to any nation who doesn't care to. We'll all have to run out together, and then we'll figure something else out or do without.

I'm also not sure you're getting the right idea from the chart of oil exploration, there's a number of reasons for that.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I always hear we have enough proven reserves for the next hundred years according to them.

I hate to be that guy, but that's just an anecdote. The study I linked says otherwise.

we're getting better at extracting oil that was previously uneconomical to exploit.

That doesn't change the fact that oil discoveries have been steadily declining for decades.

[–]Musky 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

that's just an anecdote

When I'd go shooting it was with people who had over a hundred years of combined experience in the oil industry. And that's just one day in the life. Unless they're freaking out about running out of oil, I'm not either. I'm going to trust the pros over your study, seems the prudent course.

That doesn't change the fact that oil discoveries have been steadily declining for decades.

Yes, but is that relevant at all. There's a lot of factors to oil exploration. They don't always want to look for new reservoirs.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

When I'd go shooting it was with people who had over a hundred years of combined experience in the oil industry.

Art Berman alone has 40 years of experience in the oil industry and he basically says what I'm saying. He's one of the sources on this topic I trust the most.

[–]Musky 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

He's a geologist, they're near the bottom of the totem pole, and on his site he claims to be able to predict markets. https://www.artberman.com I feel this is easily dismissed to the work of a huckster.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He's a geologist

A petroleum geologist with 40 years of experience in the industry. You have a bunch of anecdotal "engineers" whose existence I can't even verify.

[–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I believe we already discussed this in another thread but I am hopeful that nuclear fusion will solve our energy needs. As for crucial materials, I can only trust that our scientists and engineers will figure things out. I can't comment on the likelihood of that, since I am no expert on the topic, however.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't have such faith in technology.