all 8 comments

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

Zemmour got 7% and Le Pen 24%. Combined they pulled in 31% just like the polls showed. That seems to be the ceiling on populist right support in France. Macron got the predicted 27% as well. That seems to be the ceiling for left liberalism.

Melenchon's voters will be the kingmaker.

The mainstream right has completely collapsed and thank God for that.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That seems to be the ceiling on populist right support in France.

Don't forget Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's 2%.

Anyway, that's just with the current electoral candidates in the first round. Le Pen will at least get 40-45% in the second round. And when it comes to ideas the populist right has around 70%.

Melenchon's voters will be the kingmaker.

We'll see.

The mainstream right has completely collapsed and thank God for that.

Couldn't agree more.

[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (5 children)

If Zemmour was promoted unwittingly to keep Le Pen out of round two, he thankfully failed. But he almost did it: that sack of shit Mélenchon almost made it, which would have led to the disastrous Macron v. Mélenchon election that I think was what globohomo really thought was ideal. I'm glad that you were dead wrong about Zemmour, because if you weren't, that's what we'd be looking at right now. With that danger out of the way, that just leaves the Maricón.

I think RN can count on:

  • Zemmour's 7.05%
  • Dupont-Aignan's 2.07%

That would bring her to 32.53%. I think about 1/2 of Pécresse's 4.79% will probably go that way (the rest either not voting or to Macron) as well. That's about 35%.

You have said before that you read somewhere that around half or just over of Mélenchon's supporters are for Le Pen? I'll just play it safe and assume 1/3 of those who bother to do so, because I think that most of Mélenchon's supporters (including himself) seem generally indifferent between the 'fascist' and the neoliberal, who, being rather like Antifa, they think are basically the same. The ones that will come out for Macron are probably the most 'Right-phobic' ones (degenerates frightened about social radicalism being delayed or reversed, which largely won't happen, and nonwhites frightened about a 'remigration' that sadly is even less likely to happen).

We're now at 42.19%.

What we have left is the only other centrist party (Resistons!), which I think will probably be mostly for Macron and the Left-wing parties (EELV, PCF, PS, NPA, LO). I'd assume about 1/3 of most of these voters will go for Le Pen rather than close to 1/2.

That would be 46.56%. Close to my original estimation that Macron would win 55-45 rather than 66-33 as he did last time around.

Basically, I think the only thing that will save Le Pen at this point is an unusually low Left-wing turnout in round 2. If phobia of the Right brings out enough of these shitheads, then I think we can safely predict a narrow 53.5-46.5 Macron victory. That'll be unfortunate, and we'll hear constant gloating about 'fascism' has been prevented in France for weeks.

I hope instead that they simply choose to stay home. Then I'll enjoy all of their tears once they realize: "Holy fuck, Le Pen won! Because we thought Macron would win without us and I do not want to vote for him because he is a 'fascist'... but... now we have even more 'fascism'... Petain... Vichy... my life is over!"

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

If Zemmour was promoted unwittingly to keep Le Pen out of round two, he thankfully failed.

Like I said, I don't buy that.

which would have led to the disastrous Macron v. Mélenchon election that I think was what globohomo really thought ideal.

That's just nonsense. ZOG doesn't want Mélenchon either. He's anti-NATO, anti-EU, and anti-US empire in general. What they really wanted was Macron vs. Pécresse, and they would have preferred Pécresse. Macron has the balls to say no to ZOG sometimes.

I think about 1/2 of Pécresse's 4.79% will probably go that way

A new poll predicts that it will be 1/3 abstention, 1/3 Macron, and 1/3 Le Pen.

Anyway, the new poll predicts 51% for Macron and 49% for Le Pen. She can win.

[–]LGBTQIAIDSAnally Injected Death Sentence 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

You don't think that the mass media and political classes would prop up a whole bunch of Right-wing candidates to ensure that none of them get through? I don't think it is particularly farfetched at all. They are trying to stop a 'Fourth Reich' or 'Second Vichy' and history would damn them if Le Pen wins, in their own minds. Of course CEOs and other 'elites' would do this.

Next, is Mélenchon actually anti-NATO and anti-EU? Or just performatively? I don't think that he is a risk anywhere near to the extent that Le Pen was before she moved away from those ideas. Mélenchon is far better for the System than Le Pen. I also do not believe that a Left-wing candidate would ever be viewed as a threat by the System, no matter how extreme.

Do you have any polls on the way that LFI, RES, EELV, PCF, PS, NPA and LO voters want to go?

More unpleasant topics aside, I'm seeing plenty of Left-wing derangement right now, and it's uproarious. They're having a meltdown, probably too stupid to remember that RN will probably always make round two in the absence of the likes of Zemmour:

I hope that the Far-Left heed this guy's demented message. Macron is 'Far-Right' so waste your vote!

So if this is confirmed, it will be necessary to massively vote blank in the second round. You can't choose between two far-right scoundrels.

It's also combining itself with Putin Derangement Syndrome:

No friends of #PutinWarCriminal #UkraineRussiaWar shall ever get near any public office. Ever.

Muh Putin, muh Russia.

[–]EthnocratArcheofuturist[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You don't think that the mass media and political classes would prop up a whole bunch of Right-wing candidates to ensure that none of them get through? I don't think it is particularly farfetched at all. They are trying to stop a 'Fourth Reich' or 'Second Vichy' and history would damn them if Le Pen wins, in their own minds. Of course CEOs and other 'elites' would do this.

I'm saying I don't buy that Zemmour is an example of that.

Next, is Mélenchon actually anti-NATO and anti-EU?

Yes. He was one of the major campaigners for the 2005 French European Constitution referendum.

I also do not believe that a Left-wing candidate would ever be viewed as a threat by the System, no matter how extreme.

That's just retarded. That's like saying the system didn't view the USSR as a threat.

Do you have any polls on the way that LFI, RES, EELV, PCF, PS, NPA and LO voters want to go?

They mentioned some numbers on French TV.

They're having a meltdown

Where?

[–]ifuckredditsnitches_Resident Pajeet 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Even if she really does have popular support they could just stuff the ballots right? Or are they too overconfident to bother?