Lukashenka on weapons: "There are attempts to transfer of weapons, ammunition and explosives to these people in camps, in last 2 days they are transferring weapons... we talked with Putin on this topic... weapons coming from Donbas, they want to make a provocation"

submitted by EthnocratArcheofuturist from self.debatealtright

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[–]NeoRail 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

My assumption is that Lukashenko is working without or perhaps even against Russia, since he's both linking this to the Donbas and risking Russian gas exports in Belarus and Ukraine. I don't know what Belarus or Russia could possibly stand to gain from this or how far this dispute could escalate, and I am not sure I can make a reasonable guess either.

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    [–]NeoRail 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    It's a weird situation because both Putin and the EU want Belarus in perpetuity, but neither party really wants Lukashenko. He's kind of an independent dictator. He is allied with Russia, but he has the capacity to do huge damage to its strategic situation and he knows that. He is vulnerable but at the same time has a lot of leverage.