The SAA gets flattened without support from Russia but early after the Turkish push, the SAA was scoring bizarre victories on merit of Russia's assistance. This changed drastically with the introduction of Israeli Harpy drones, which suicide into radar and these drones were crippling Russian made AA systems giving the Turkish Army an advantage again. Russia is actually waaay more involved with Syria than most media lets on from my understanding. However, my source for this is twitter war correspondents- they all surmise that the Syrian Army is simply Russian cannon fodder.

Turkish military quality is a function of it's leadership which is fluid and has been mixed in effectiveness. It is true that they have the numbers and tech however. All merits of being in NATO.

Most of your facts are actually correct, I just don't agree with your optimism. One thing worth adding is that the Kurds really aren't native to Eastern Anatolia in the numbers that are present. They were purposely seeded to prevent Armenian reparation in the wake of the forced relocation/genocide. Armenia itself used to be almost all of Western Turkey and the landscape is still dotted with red castles/fortresses and ruined cities. A sad sight tbh. Same applies to Cappodocia and the Aegean Coastlines once having beautiful Greek cities now in ruins. I can't really speak for the Greeks, but the desire among Armenians to have their ancestral lands back is very real, especially their sacred mountain, Mount Ararat which is the symbol of Armenia. There will be a turf war with the Kurds for that land if Turkey as a country falls apart.

So that leads me to the X-factor here which is Turkification. Since Anatolia is comprised of so many fractured cultures and remnants of empires, it is dependent on its overarching nationalism to avoid disintegration. Social media and globalism have destroyed nationalism and religion in the Middle East and many countries are rapidly becoming irreligious and secular losing their cohesion. This is why the Turks push back hard against Armenian genocide narratives. Couple a dying culture with politcal instability and I just don't see them staying together long term. I had actually commented in the Hagia Sophia thread that this is the reason for Erdogan's re-christening of the Church to a Mosque, it was a desperate attempt to stir nationalism and Muslim identity.

I never new Turkey's TFR was 1.5 outside of the Eastern regions but that is another big issue so good catch.