all 90 comments

[–]indianusjones 7 insightful - 2 fun7 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 2 fun -  (48 children)

Rebuttle here outlines that not one of these 25 are climatologists. The article claims their science is flawed also.

[–]sawboss[S] 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Thank you for sharing that link. I've never heard of the publication before, and would never have found it on my own. Constructive critique and thoughtful rebuttal is exactly what I'm hoping to get from SaidIt. Keep up the great work!

[–]indianusjones 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Hi Sawboss,

You and I know each other from IRC of course. I hesitated to post but knew you would respond rationally in kind.

In the final analysis it's not about who can shout over whom--it's about reasoned positions backed by the best available knowlege.

R*ddit has become a shouting match over ideology. You've proven that we can get beyond talking points and assess the facts. I can see you feel the same way.

You and I may not agree on this one but if I see the science that global warming is not caused by human activity then I'm perfectly happy with that result. In the vernacular, "I don't give a shit about posturing, I care about the facts."

[–]sawboss[S] 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You and I may not agree on this one

It's not even that we strongly disagree. I do believe that the climate changes. I am not convinced that those changes are driven by human activity to the extent that many other people seem to. Either way, it's a much lower priority for me than finding some way to avoid the coming civil war in America which is currently being fueled by fake news and social media.

[–]James_Kuhn3rd 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

They've fully demonstrated the problem Judith Curry and others pointed out. Scientists use to focus on a particular area to study, geology, tidal physics, oceanography, meteorology etc.

In universities, entire PhD programs have been creeping up under the guise of environmental engineering or climatology. Instead of a hard science, it's really a soft science or I guess you could call it some type of data science.

They essentially aggregate data and do prediction modeling. Our chair often mocks them, but I think he's jealous they get massive funding and fast tracked grants.

Big money to be made if you got a green label on the things you study or work on though

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You make an excellent point.

It would be great if the general public understood this important distinction.

Data mining and modeling are not hard sciences. They're similar to social sciences.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (42 children)

Climate scientist's questioning climate science is like being an atheist priest.

You shut up, if you want to keep your career.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (41 children)

I'm curious about a couple of things:

First: do you think climate scientists are different from other professionals? Specifically: most professions tend to agree on a set of core "truths" which they then promote as the truth to non-experts. For example bridge engineers agree on how to build safe bridges, road engineers agree on how to build safe roads, airplane engineers agree on how to build safe planes. Do you think climate scientists are more inclined to lie?

Second: Who would you trust most about climate, someone who does not know climate science or someone who does? If you trust an non-expert more, why is that and would you also trust a non-expert to be the pilot on your next flight?

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (40 children)

My fiend, the best explanation to both of these questions are summarized by this video below.

The Crisis of Science

TLDR: The main issues are funding, and publishing.

If you investigate certain topics then you won't get funding.

If you submit certain researched subjects/results to be published, then controlled journals won't publish them.

If a scientist cannot continue to both publish and receive funding then that persons career is over.

The system is broken. The system encourages scientific results that the gatekeepers favor.

Edit:

Why did climate "scientists" stop calling it "man made global warming"?

Answer: Because the climate stopped warming, and their model predictions never came true.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (39 children)

I'm intimately familiar with academia including privately funded research. But you don't answer any of my questions. I didn't ask "why do you think climate scientist are lying" because that seems to be the question you're answering.

I asked you (rephrasing):

  1. do you think climate scientists are different from other experts i.e. do you think they lie more than say bridge engineers?

  2. Who would you trust more: someone who know nothing about climate science or someone who does?

What I'm implying is that climate deniers are very selective in who they "trust". They will happily cite people who have no relevant knowledge as if they were experts, just like flatearthers or antivaxer will trust some pseudo science airhead over actual experts.

Would any of those reality deniers denounce a flight safety engineer or an actual pilot when embarking on their next flight? Would you?

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

do you think climate scientists are different from other experts i.e. do you think they lie more than say bridge engineers?

Yes. Climate Scientists deal almost exclusively with climate models. These models have a dismal prediction record, and exaggerate the severity of every prediction.
These models do not begin to approach predicting what happens in the real world.
The 80s and 90s predictions claimed the coasts would be flooded be feet of water, with multiple degrees of temp increase. It never happened, because the models are bogus.

the climate science community inexplicably stick to their dubious models. If their it model is proposed and it fails to predict an outcome, then a new theory/model that better fits the outcome should be hypothesized.
The climate science community instead doubles down on the theory, and predicts accelerated disaster scenes.

There are a handful of dissenting voices in their community, but they are made into pariahs and shunned. It is disgraceful.
Science is never "settled", and scientific voices should not be suppressed.

Who would you trust more: someone who know nothing about climate science or someone who does?

It's not about "trust".
The overwhelming majority of people are trustworthy on some level. I believe that most people act with good intentions. The same applies to all scientists.

It is about the scientific method.
When the scientific method is properly followed then human assumptions and biases are factored out, to the greatest extent.

If a theory/model accurately predicts an outcome, then it may be useful in the specific tested context. If it falls to predict the initial prediction, then it is discarded, and a new theory/model is created to replace it.

This is the common practice in most sciences communities.

This is not a common practice in the climate science community. There are many prominent climate scientists who have publicly made absurd predictions, that couldn't be farther from reality.
This would damage one's career in most scientific communities.
For whatever reason they retain their academic prominence.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (37 children)

What I'm implying is that climate deniers are very selective in who they "trust". They will happily cite people who have no relevant knowledge as if they were experts, just like flatearthers or antivaxer will trust some pseudo science airhead over actual experts.

It's interesting that you're lump these folks together? Would you include 9/11 Truthers in this same category?

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (36 children)

Would I include 9/11 truthers?

Well, first of all, you made (in your other answer) claims that climate scientists don't follow proper scientific methods, and their "models have a dismal prediction record". I don't know what you base that claim on other than "a handful of dissenting voices". So apparently "a handful of dissenting voices" have more weight to you than the entire scientific community. You're obviously not a climate scientist and I have a strong feeling that you're not a scientist in the first place. Therefore I would also assume that you don't even know how to evaluate the predictive performance of different models.

And that's exactly how antivaxers argue.

When you don't know what you're talking about it's easy to convince yourself that you actually do and that the subject is easy to understand see Dunning–Kruger effect.

Also: you still didn't answer my question: are climate scientists more prone to lying than other professionals?

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

are climate scientists more prone to lying than other professionals?

No. Lying requires intent to deceive.

I do not believe climate scientists are maliciously trying to deceive.
In my opinion, it is a matter of the foundations selecting certain individuals who believe the things that the foundations support. If these groups are paying for their work, then they feel successful and believe that they are helping better society.
I would not fault them in any way for that.

In a similar way, I believe that most journalists are honest people with good intentions.

Journalists who report the wrong way don't get promoted, and remove themselves from the MSM system.

Journalists who rise in prominence are those who internalize the values of their institutions, and know how to report the story the right way.

I do not fault these individuals. They are products of the system that controls investment and exposure of their ideas.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

You obviously don't know how science work, which is normal outside of scientific circles. But you go on to make scientific claims as if you do. And that is pretty problematic, like antivaxxers claiming to know "scientifically" that essential oils are better at curing diseases.

  1. There was a lot of scientific climate debate up through the 1980s and 1990s but it was essentially settled in early 2000s: current climate change is man made, and it threatening the planet. True there may be a few holdouts like the ones you mention but they don't represent the science, and it's strange that anyone would trust them over the entire community.

  2. You mentioned in an earlier response that the fact that these holdouts were shunned by the community was "a disgrace". No it's not, it's an emotional argument but there is little room for emotions in science. This is exactly how science is supposed to work. If a researcher makes outlandish or revolutionary claims they must be met with rigorous skepticism. That's the case also for valid claims. They must be proven beyond reasonable doubt. If they stand up to the rigorous trials in the community they will survive. You have no idea how many crazy theories are fielded, most die before they leave the lab because they don't work. Some live a bit longer and a few survive to be the new truth.

    EDIT:

    As an example look at how the experiments with the Ion thruster and with Cold fusion were received by their respective scientific communities. Both were met with extreme skepticism, but the scientific community still investigated further. One was accepted the other not.

  3. There is a logic fallacy in your argument: you have made up your mind that those few "dissenting voices" are more trustworthy than the entire scientific community and then you move backwards to construct an explanation of the mechanism that leads to the community being wrong. Further the specific claims you make with regard to the mechanism do not logically lead to any specific conclusion, that is, there may be issues with how science work (which is very true) but there is no indication which direction it would move the conclusions. You claim that they would lead to overly alarmist predictions but if I look at the economic forces with a vested interest in climate research most of the powerful economic entities would rather undermine than support an climate change agenda. So in my analysis, your argument leads to the opposite conclusion: climate scientist have systematically under-reported the seriousness of climate change. Still we should look at the facts and we should overwhelmingly trust the scientific community over "a handful of dissenting voices".

In my view you have been ensnared by the old industry (fossil fuel industry, car makers) who see emerging sustainable technologies as serious threats and you are now promoting their agenda while the planet is dying.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I understand the sciences on an applied professional level.

For the better part of 30 years, I was in agreement with the man made climate change consensus; until I personally investigated the facts.

At that point (with great difficulty) I has the choice of changing my view, or accept intellectual dishonesty.

Through great effort, I chose the intellectually honest path. I'm sure you'd agree that It is much easier to go with the group think consensus on this issue.

Unfortunately, the evidence does not support the man made climate change model.

The environmental weather is exactly what we should expect if we follow the long-term 1000 year historical trend.

The p-hacked models and graphs that say otherwise, are bogus.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (29 children)

their "models have a dismal prediction record". I don't know what you base that claim on other than "a handful of dissenting voices". So apparently "a handful of dissenting voices" have more weight to you than the entire scientific community.

It's pretty simple to evaluate what's claimed, vs what actually occurs. Here's a great example of just that.

Thirty Years Of Failed Climate Predictions.

They make a claim. The stated time passes. They are completely wrong, and nothing changes in any way. The media praises them for their failed prediction, and claim that they got it right..

It's truly mind blowing to see how the actual facts are ignored be the climate science community in this example.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (28 children)

It's pretty simple

Exactly my point, no it's not and you don't know what you're talking about. Talking to you is like talking to an antivaxxer.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (27 children)

It is easy to evaluate predictions that were made decades ago, and then compare these predictions with what occured in the real world; in the predicted time periods.
That is actually easy to do.

Watch the video in the link. Their predictions were completely wrong. The seas didn't rise above New York or DC, at all..

[–][deleted] 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (35 children)

Saidit is seeming more and more like a right-wing propaganda dissemination site everyday.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Your sentiment is understandable.

Groupthink exists on both political sides. The question is, how can you ever be certain that the side the you are on is factually correct?

Do you truly believe that the "right side" is wrong about everything???

How would you know if you don't listen openly to their arguments?

I'm formerly left-leaning, but I've realized that choosing a side is not a wise decision if I'm interested in objective, and measurable facts.

Political discourse is predicated on misleading the public.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

I understand your point but it's pretty easy to know your on the right side when the other side is stuff like 9/11 was Jewish conspracy, Vaccines cause autism, NASA says global warming isn't real, LGBT vegan communism is turning the frogs gay type stuff

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Is it? I'll not so sure.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Yes. It is.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

How do you know?

I agree that many of those appear absurd, but have you thoroughly investigated each and come to this conclusion on your own?

Google is now using it's algorithms to censor an alarming volume of formerly available info.
If you look for info on the major search engines then you be inundated with propaganda.

If you were to decide to investigate any supposedly ridiculous claim, then I would strongly recommend asking the most credible source where to find info, so you can decide for yourself based on any available evidence.

The most receptive and open-minded source that I am aware of is JasonCarswell.
He is exceptionally open-minded and I consider him a reliable source of info; even though I disagree with him on a number of issues.

The only fact that you can always be certain of is: You don't know, what you don't know.

I do know however that 3 buildings collapsed into their own footprint on 9/11, and that one of them was never damaged by any aircraft..
This is obvious controlled demolition. Terrorists didn't do this, and it was never investigated as a crime.
Wouldn't you agree that this should be investigated as a crime?

[–]endopassing 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (11 children)

It's because they congregate where they're not yet banned for inciting violence or general destructive or hateful behavior.

No social network can survive in the long run without curbing hatefulness. So either saidit will deal sensibly with right wingers or it will descent into voat and disappear.

[–]Tom9152 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

Left-wingers are the most hateful people. The left are anti-everything. Speech, guns, fetuses, capitalism, truth, carbon, white, male, christian, and more.

[–]endopassing 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

Left-wingers are the most hateful people.

Disagree, hateful people are the most hateful people. Partisan people (like yourself) tend to call out haters from the other side while silently or openly supporting haters from their own side - including supporting the violence they perpetrate.

The only way forward is to oppose all haters. Right now, right wing terrorism is far more prevalent than left wing or religious terrorism. Some years ago other groups topped the list of terrorists. But the last couple of years right wing terrorism is on top. So do humanity a favor and oppose all violence not just what you see as "the other side".

[–]fred_red_beans 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

You contradict yourself:

So either saidit will deal sensibly with right wingers or it will descent into voat and disappear.

The only way forward is to oppose all haters.

Right now, right wing terrorism is far more prevalent than left wing or religious terrorism.

So do humanity a favor and oppose all violence not just what you see as "the other side".

Which you have posited the other side being the right wing.

Last I checked we are all individuals who can make up our own minds regardless of what anyone labels us.

[–]endopassing 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

I oppose all haters, left wing, religious, sports, incels, sjws. However, right now right wingers are prolifilic with a consistent destructive behavior. Therefore we need to specifically deal with them if we want our environment to thrive and continue to be friendly. Same thing if sports fan would troll every thread pushing whatever hate against some other team.

[–]fred_red_beans 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

OK, you assert that right wingers are prolific with destructive behavior. What constitutes a right winger? What specifically has been destroyed by right wingers?

I see the perception of left wingers vs right wingers as dividing people and causing strife between people while distracting people from real atrocities in places like Lybia, Syria, Yemen where families are literelly ripped apart from bombing campaigns from the US and NATO. Last I checked, those were "bi-partisian" efforts.

[–]endopassing 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I see the perception of left wingers vs right wingers as dividing people and causing strife between people while distracting people from real atrocities

I agree, I may need to find other words to describe the type of people I'm talking about. What I'm talking about are people who are particularly derogative while promoting hate against women, poc, open racism etc. When these people don't just take part in civilized debate but start systematically spam and troll, which they did on reddit and do on voat and 4chan, then I think the platform needs to deal with it if it wants to survive.

I'm not saying "they must" but if they don't get that kind of vile environment under control it's not a place for me.

[–]fred_red_beans 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I agree, I don't like the environment on reddit or voat either.

[–]Tom9152 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

| people who are particularly derogative while promoting hate against women, poc, open racism etc.

Islam law is woman are property, blacks are slaves, and Arabs are superior. So you're an islamaphobe.

Also criticism isn't hate.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Islam law is woman are property, blacks are slaves, and Arabs are superior

So is Christian law, if you're referring to deeply conservative (i.e. right wing) interpretation of fundamental scriptures.

So you're pointing to yet another example of how destructive right wing people are - whether they call themselves Christians or Muslims or white supremacists.

[–]Tom9152 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Antifa proves you wrong.

[–]anescient 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (17 children)

What I've seen is just a couple of users vomiting this shit everywhere. Maybe it will calm down after they burn through their backlog.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (13 children)

Do you believe that the environment is so fragile that adding a total of 0.01% CO2 (over the course of 120 years) would throw the environmental system into chaos?

[–]anescient 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (11 children)

001 and I were having a conversation if you don't mind.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

It's not that I mind. This is a public forum.

I apologise if I overlooked some indication that you were having a private conversation.

In the future, please use the personal message system if you are engaging in private discourse.

Please explain what I overlooked, so I can respect your privacy in the future.

Moving on: Now that you and I are conversing:

anescient, do you believe that the environment is so fragile that adding a total of 0.01% CO2 (over the course of 120 years) would throw the environmental system into chaos?

Can you provide any similar examples in the real world? Thanks. :-D

[–]anescient 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

Me-ow. I shot you some sass because I was talking about saidit, not this particular post, and you came out swinging with a non-sequitur loaded question.

As for this thread, now...

CO2 accounts for about 0.04% of the atmosphere, and it's a top contributor to the greenhouse effect, so 0.01% is actually pretty major.

I don't know if I'd call it "fragile", but kinda, yea. I know about chaos; I've used it as a tool many times. Complex systems are a bitch, see: stock markets.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

I think you misunderstood my response. But that's fine.

CO2 accounts for about 0.04% of the atmosphere, and it's a top contributor to the greenhouse effect, so 0.01% is actually pretty major.

Is it? where is the evidence?

If the "top contributor to the green house gas effect" CO2 increased by 33% (0.01%/0.03%), then why haven't we seen comparable increases in temperature?

[–]anescient 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

I think your response was passive aggressive. But that's fine.

Is it? where is the evidence?

Is what? Is the composition?

You can certainly get there via separating the air, something we've got going on at an industrial scale. You can get there with absorption spectroscopy, too.

... or, is a top contributor? (a top contributor not the top contributor)

Spectroscopy, again, and some math: we know how this molecule reacts to different frequencies of light, and we know how much of it is up there. To corroborate, satellites observing the planet find a conspicuous drop in radiation right at CO2's favorite color. The planet seems to be hoarding infrared.

why haven't we seen comparable increases in temperature?

We... have. I'm not even going to bother with the CO2/Temperature history plot because there's no chance you haven't seen it, and there's no chance you trust it.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

I'm not sure what you're suggesting with this statement, but you have failed to answer the a fault basic question.

If the "top contributor to the green house gas effect" CO2 increased by 33% (0.01%/0.03%), then why haven't we seen comparable increases in temperature?

[–]anescient 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Surely you don't mean, "why haven't we seen a 33% increase in temperature"?

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Maybe it will calm down

No it won't. I didn't die down on voat or 4chan - or reddit for that matter, reddit fought it down while 4chan is dealing with it now and voat is dying - if not already dead.

[–]anescient 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

yyyyeah. shit. On closer inspection, these are not new user accounts doing this.

[–]endopassing 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I have started a policy of blocking users who I find are trolling, either intentionally or by being too steeped in stupidity.

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 3 fun1 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 3 fun -  (6 children)

I would love a no holds barred science battle of NASA Scientists and climate Scientists.

CLIMATE HOAX VS. MOON LANDING HOAX!!!

Both sides would end up like this...

[–]magnora7 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (5 children)

Nasty image dude, why are you posting it all over

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (4 children)

It's a SaidIt dank meme OG!

Maximum dank, bro! There are limitless applications. It's a gold mine!!!

[–]magnora7 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Nah, it's just gross

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

It's dank...

Would you like me to remove it?

[–]magnora7 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

Nah, just maybe don't post it anymore. Not really saidit-worthy

[–]Tom_Bombadil 1 insightful - 2 fun1 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

The dankest meme for the most open and thought provoking website.

Nothing but the best for you bro! ;-)