My thoughts:

1a) I do not think Biden is stronger than Obama. Obama had organic visible support everwhere. People don't like Biden more than Hillary, but they hate him a lot less. I honestly have no idea what Biden is running on though like Hillary except giving Brazil 20 billion, stacking the SC and locking the entire US down. Kamala is more unlikeable though and we all know she's going to be President in a year if Biden wins. I don't know if the general population knows it though.

1b) Trump in 2016 felt like an outsider who might finally be able to break the two party system and actually be able to do things. Within two months it was clear he was going to just going to be a a small upgrade on the average R. The main issues of 2016 like the wall, immigration, draining the swamp and healthcare(well, this this was brought up the last 3 weeks), have basically been forgotten. And shit that he should be talking about like stopping online censorship aren't even on the table for discussion.

The R's failures when they had all 3 houses is also a hard pill to swallow. Shit should have gotten done and about the same amount of stuff got done as now when they only have the Senate. What's really going to be different this time if they get all three houses again?

His touting of SC picks is stupid because anyone with a brain should know that its luck whether someone retires or drops dead.

I've argued with Trump supporters about this and they blame alot of the failures on the whole establishment being against him, which it is, but Trump could have just Executive Order'd his way through. And he didn't...because he either is afraid of being called a nazi...which newsflash, he is called that anyway. Or because a lot of trump supporters said he wanted to do things "the honorable way", which R's have proven time and time again to be a losing strategy.

2) I definitely did think Rasmussen was the only mostly trustworthy poll in 2016. I have not really followed the polls too much, but if I had to trust in any poll, it's that one. Polls are not trustworthy though. National polls are never worth looking at because the election isn't based on popular votes. Regular polls are always going to lean left because people on the right are likely more busy and even more likely to be in area's where they have horrible phone service to even respond to polls.

Demographics have changed

Yep. Florida gave a bunch of felons the vote. A bunch of people from PR are in the US now, plus others we let in. And more older people died off who were more likely to be Trump supporters.

I don't think Trump will even get 40% in this election. That's my prediction. Trump gets less than 40.

Elections really only come down to about 6 states. MI, PA, OH, NC, VA or WI. I didn't count FL because I think Trump will win it.

The EV totals are: WI = 10 VA = 13 NC = 15 MI = 16 OH = 18 PA = 20

Trump has to win PA/OH and then pick up one of NC/VA/MI. I think it's very likely he does it. But, I also think there are two bad scenarios where Trump wins PA/OH/MI or Trump only wins NC/OH. Trump wins 270-268 if he only wins PA/OH/MI, but if he only wins NC/OH...its a 269 tie. Either situation is going to be really nasty though.