Biden says Russia is clearly 'losing the war in IRAQ'

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[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (14 children)

Belarus has a Russian puppet government

So you say, but you give no evidence for your claim that Belarus and Lukashenko exist only to do Russia's bidding.

There is a spectrum from puppet government (one which is independent only in name), to vassal state (one which still retains some independence, but only within limits), to allies linked by shared culture and interests.

Americans in particular seem to have trouble believing that any two countries can be on friendly terms unless one of them is the master and the other at least a junior staff, if not outright slave. Probably because that's how they behave so they think everyone else must too.

If you want to demonstrate that Belarus is a puppet state of Russia, you need to prove that they actually have no real independence at all, not just that they are friendly, collaborate, and have each other's backs.

that retains power through "elections" that are neither free nor fair

If you expect me to defend Lukashenko as a paragon of democracy, I'm going to disappoint.

But having said that, you're linking to Voice Of Belarus as your source? Okay.

VOB is aimed at American audiences not the local people of Belarus. That's why its in English. Their funding is obscure, which suggests that most of their money comes from the National Endowment for Democracy or even the CIA. Even if it doesn't, they're still parroting the CIA line: Lukashenko bad, Tsikhanouskaya good, Belarus needs a colour revolution to bring them into the US sphere of influence.

Tsikhanouskaya is astonishingly unpopular in Belarus even among the pro-Western, anti-Lukashenko crowd. The method used by VOB to cough "prove" cough she won is laughably bad. It might as well have been a Twitter poll.

And then you go on to use an anonymous Reddit user -- a deleted user at that -- as your source that "Russian oligarchs tried to seize power". A few problems with that:

  • This random Redditor describes genocidal mass murderers Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych as "freedom fighters"
  • and supports open discrimination against 25% of the country on the basis of ethnicity
  • but most of all, he doesn't mention Russian oligarchs even once.

He's lost support of the Wagner mercenaries, and nearly lost his government.

Its hard to take you seriously when you fall for such cartoon takes. You're believing the same clowns who claimed that Putin had fled the country and that this silly little drive to Moscow by an egotistical billionaire caterer ex-con was the start of a new Russian Revolution. You need to get a better source of information than the mainstream US press, which always tells the truth when absolutely no other alternative, including dead silence, presents itself.

Only a tiny fraction of Wagner were active participants of this aborted march on Moscow. Most of the rest are signing up with the Russian military. I'll admit I have no idea of what's happening with Progozhin or why he hasn't fallen out of a window yet, but his home has been raided and his companies have lost all their MoD contracts. (Mind you, the contracts were already under investigation for financial fraud before the march occurred.)

No Russian government officials supported Progozhin. No regional governors supported him. No military officers supported Progozhin, and no military units deserted or joined him. There was no popular support for his aborted drive on Moscow, and Putin's popularity has gone up, not down, for taking a fucked up situation and unfucking it quickly, decisively and without having to slaughter the heroes of Bakhmod.

Even if you hate Putin for personally raping your dog and shooting your wife and kids, you have to admit that he called Progozhin's bluff masterfully.

[–]ActuallyNot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (13 children)

So you say, but you give no evidence for your claim that Belarus and Lukashenko exist only to do Russia's bidding.

While Ukraine is resisting Putin, Belarus is becoming his puppet

RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN BELARUS

Americans in particular seem to have trouble believing that any two countries can be on friendly terms unless one of them is the master and the other at least a junior staff, if not outright slave.

Both countries are dictatorships. The relationship is not between the people but between Lukashenko and Putin. Neither takes advice from their country.

And then you go on to use an anonymous Reddit user -- a deleted user at that -- as your source that "Russian oligarchs tried to seize power".

He describes the fall from democracy, and the laws that were attempted to be pushed through, that set of the Euromaidan protests. And he links to those laws, and he describes how the parliament voted on them outside the normal process.

That that happened and that the Euromaidan protests resulted is known to history.

this silly little drive to Moscow

It's a silly litte drive that took out Russian Military Helicopter, and a shot down a Il-22M airborne command-center plane.

How much defending hardware to you have to destroy or capture before you're no longer "silly"?

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (12 children)

While Ukraine is resisting Putin, Belarus is becoming his puppet

Quote: "Katia Glod is an independent analyst and Fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program of the Center for European Policy Analysis (Washington, DC)." So another state-affiliated NGO doing Washington's propaganda for them 🙄

Did you read the article? Or stop at the headline? Its a long-list of assertions that Belarus is "becoming" a puppet of Russia (which implies that they aren't a puppet yet), but a complete shortage of any credible evidence for this claim except that Vladimir Makei "pledged" that all Russian troops would leave Belarus after the military exercises but they didn't. That's pretty thin stuff. Ministers often say one thing and do another.

Wikipedia is completely colonised by Anglo-American TLA shills, but even their page on Russian-Belarussian relations is less one-sided and more credible than your source.

Belarus is a small, poor state next to a big, powerful, rich one. Actually, in area they're not that small. But they are weak and poor. It has a lot of economic problems, including corruption and the generally backwards nature of the country. Culturally they're effectively Russian, and Russia gives Belarus billions in subsidies. But Russia doesn't hold all the cards and Belarus is frequently able to dictate terms to Russia, or stare them down, e.g. during the 2004 dispute over gas when Belarus started stealing Russian gas intended for Germany and Poland, and again in 2007, and the Milk War.

Russia and Belarus are close, but Belarus guards its independence jealously and Lukashenko is quite capable of saying no to Putin.

Both countries are dictatorships.

Our common political language is so impoverished. 🙁 Everything is either an "authoritarian dictatorship" (bad) or a "Free™ democracy" (good) and democracy is put up on a pedestal as the One True Perfect Political System. Unless the People vote for Donald Trump.

Dictators rule by fiat. I see no evidence that Putin rules by personal fiat. Let us agree that Russia is a semi-autocratic hybrid democracy.

Lukashenko I have no comment because I don't know enough about the country to comment sensibly.

He describes the fall from democracy, and the laws that were attempted to be pushed through, that set of the Euromaidan protests.

He describes what he claims is the fall from democracy, which other Ukrainians who don't celebrate genocidal murderers dispute. Gosh, people can have different opinions about political events, who would have imagined it???

And he links to those laws

Yeah, you didn't actually click on that link did you? You just assumed that it supported his story.

It's a silly litte drive that took out Russian Military Helicopter, and a shot down a Il-22M airborne command-center plane.

So we're told, but its not exactly clear what happened. I don't think that the Russian government has at yet confirmed that Wagner shot down anything, which could just be them staying mum, or it could be because it didn't happen.

But let's suppose that they did shoot down two Russian aircraft and killed two pilots. How does that get them closer to overthrowing the government?

Nidal Hasan killed 12 soldiers and 1 civilian, and injured 33 more people, at Fort Hood. Does that mean that the US government was at risk of collapse too? It takes more than a few random acts of violence to overthrow a government.

[–]ActuallyNot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (11 children)

Its a long-list of assertions that Belarus is "becoming" a puppet of Russia (which implies that they aren't a puppet yet)

Puppet's not a step function. Lukashenko depends on Moscow to remain his grip on the country, over the will of the people.

Yeah, you didn't actually click on that link did you? You just assumed that it supported his story.

I did at the time. Do you not recall 2014?

I don't think that the Russian government has at yet confirmed that Wagner shot down anything,

I don't think they've confirmed shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. So if that's your standard, you may be waiting a while.

But let's suppose that they did shoot down two Russian aircraft and killed two pilots.

The helicopters shot down are somewhere in the 1 to 6 range.

The l-22M airborne command-center plane had a crew of 10, all of who were killed.

How does that get them closer to overthrowing the government?

The forces that shot down the planes were on their way to Moscow. When they got there you have one of those coup things you can have when you've got tanks at the Duma building.

I didn't suggest that the Russian Military people killed while attempting to stop them would overthrow the government directly. You're mistaken about that. I said that it refutes your characterisation of it as "this silly little drive to Moscow". But you know that don't you?

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Lukashenko depends on Moscow to remain his grip on the country, over the will of the people.

That's what US-funded NGOs claim. Belorussians seem to have a different opinion. "Uncle Sasha" is apparently quite popular. But then we know that nations can be strongly divided: Trump is simultaneously much beloved and much hated.

Don't you find it strange that not one single government anywhere in the world that is opposed to the US that doesn't get labelled illegitimate?

I did at the time.

Ah right. Nine years ago you not only read that Reddit thread, but you clicked on the link to a Ukrainian website and read it. I believe you. Thousands wouldn't, but I do.

I don't think they've confirmed shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

That would be the shooting down of a Malaysian plane where the Malaysians were not permitted to take part in the investigation because they would not agree to give Ukraine a veto over any findings.

That would be the incident where a private firm run by ex-British Special Forces agents, Pilgrims Group, was heavily involved in ferrying journalists to the site and deciding on what they could, and couldn't, see.

The one where it took months for the bodies to be collected while the crash site remained unguarded and unprotected from tampering for extended periods.

The same incident where the defendant who defended himself in court was found not guilty.

The same crash where only close allies of the US were involved in the investigation, including one of the prime suspects themselves, who expressed their belief that Russia was to blame before the investigation even started. How fortunate it was that investigators were able to rely on so much critical information that came directly from the Ukrainian SBU and the MI6 sock puppet Bellingcat. Saved them from getting their feet wet wandering around in the fields looking for evidence or asking inconvenient questions .

Yes, I seem to remember that incident. How about you?

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

"Uncle Sasha" is apparently quite popular.

Source?

The same incident where the defendant who defended himself in court was found not guilty.

Source?

Dutch Public Prosecution Service charged four people with murder in connection with the shooting down of the aircraft: three Russians, Igor Girkin, Sergey Dubinsky, and Oleg Pulatov, and one Ukrainian, Leonid Kharchenko.

The court handed down life sentences to three defendants, Igor Girkin, Sergey Dubinskiy and Leonid Kharchenko for the murder of 298 passengers and crew. A fourth defendant, Oleg Pulatov, was acquitted on grounds of insufficient involvement in the incident.

You're talking about Pulatov then?

Why are you ignoring the others, and are characterising him as "the" defendant?

Do believe a lot of Russian propaganda?

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

"Uncle Sasha" is apparently quite popular.

Source?

It is well established that early in his rule, Lukashenko was very popular. Of course he's gone through periods of reduced popularity, and there's a section of Belarussian society that really doesn't like him, but that's true everywhere. A majority of Americans currently disapprove of Joe Biden, so I guess he must be a dictator and his election victory illegitimate too.

Back to Lukashenko... like most authoritarian figures, his popularity tends to increase during times of uncertainty (like now). His popularity went up in 2010, and again in 2014.

Since then, I have not been able to find any English language sources you would deem credible (i.e. American propagandists) that talk about Lukashenko's popularity, only references to protests against him. Oh wait, sorry, that's the wrong president.

  • Protests against our Beloved Leader: riots and insurrection by traitors.
  • Protests against your Despotic Dictator: pro-democracy rallies for freedom and democracy.

A fourth defendant, Oleg Pulatov, was acquitted on grounds of insufficient involvement in the incident.

Let me get this straight. I said that the defendant who actually went to court and defended himself was acquitted. You state exactly the same thing, but ask me for a source for something you've just confirmed???

You know when I post replies to you, some words or phrases are in blue? If you click on the blue words, your browser will see the source. You might have to read past the first sentence.

Why are you ignoring the others, and are characterising him as "the" defendant?

The defendant who defended himself in court.

Wait... is it possible that you are unaware that the three convictions were in absentia? So the defendants were unable to defend themselves?

[–]ActuallyNot 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I doubt those figures very much A majority of Americans currently disapprove of Joe Biden, so I guess he must be a dictator and his election victory illegitimate too.

Really?

You really don't understand why Lukashenko would be viewed as illegitimate, but Biden not?

Let's test your capacity for rational thought and knowledge of the topics of discussion.

Try to predict one of the arguments I'm going to use to refute that.

The defendant who defended himself in court.

Oh, for fuck's sake. You made it sound like there was some question over whether Russians were guilty.

Three people were found guilty in court.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You really don't understand why Lukashenko would be viewed as illegitimate, but Biden not?

There are millions of Americans who consider Biden is not a legitimate president, just as millions considered that Trump before him was not, and millions who thought Obama was not legitimate, and Bush Jr before him.

The difference is that there is nobody amplifying their voices in the same way that that America and NATO consistently amplify the voices of the opposition in any country that is not a vassal of the US state.

Of course I understand why Lukashenko is viewed as illegitimate. The US spends billions every year to destabilize countries like Belarus, undermine their governments, and convince media organisations both inside and outside to portray them as illegitimate, while the (real or supposed) illegitimacy of Biden is way outside of the range of acceptable narratives permitted by the DISC.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You made it sound like there was some question over whether Russians were guilty.

If you can't trust the Ukrainian security services and Ukraine's allies to investigate a possible Ukrainian war crime, one where the investigators expressed their opinion that Russia was guilty even before they begun the investigation, then who can you trust?

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

The helicopters shot down are somewhere in the 1 to 6 range. The l-22M airborne command-center plane had a crew of 10, all of who were killed.

Okay, let's say that there were 20 people killed on the Russian for the sake of the argument. So Putin is a completely ineffectual leader incapable of dealing with outright treason and at the same time the most evil man on the planet who has his enemies killed by "falling out of windows" and poisonings at the drop of the hat.

This must have something to do with quantum mechanics.

Reminds me of Umberto Eco's list of features of what he calls "Ur-Fascism", especially number 8:

"The followers must feel humiliated by the ostentatious wealth and force of their enemies. When I was a boy I was taught to think of Englishmen as the five-meal people. They ate more frequently than the poor but sober Italians. Jews are rich and help each other through a secret web of mutual assistance. However, the followers must be convinced that they can overwhelm the enemies. Thus, by a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak. Fascist governments are condemned to lose wars because they are constitutionally incapable of objectively evaluating the force of the enemy." (Emphasis added.)

Russia is the greatest threat to peace and is preparing to roll over western Europe all the way to Portugal like a steamroller, and at the same time a paper tiger being defeated by tiny little Ukraine in every battle, and is going to run out of missiles, tanks, munitions, soldiers and money Any Day Now For Sure.

Putin is a strongman dictator who can have anyone murdered at any time and at the same time a weak and indecisive leader who only survives as president because Progozhin decided at the last minute to let him off the hook out of humanitarian kindness.

Western perception of Russia is half Stalin's USSR in 1945 after the Red Army had smashed Hitler's army and occupied Berlin, and half Russia of the 1990s after the IMF and World Bank shock treatment had wrecked the country and the Russian army couldn't even pay their troops.

The forces that shot down the planes were on their way to Moscow. When they got there you have one of those coup things you can have when you've got tanks at the Duma building.

And then what happens? Let's say that Wagner arrest or kill the guards there and take over the building, and Progozhin walks into Putin's office and sits in his chair. Now what?

Is it a magic chair that makes whom so ever sits in it the legal and legitimate ruler of the land? Once Progozhin sits in the chair, does he become president, or does he have to defeat Putin in one-on-one mortal combat in front of the assembled tribes from all over Russia?

Is there a popular uprising either for or against the coup? Do the regional governors support Putin or Progozhin? Who do the army chiefs support? What does the Russian constitution say, and are the supreme court judges likely to back him or at least stay quiet? Progozhin needs at least the illusion of legality since he doesn't have the manpower to rule all of Russia by force and intimidation.

What's the MoD doing? If the MoD decides to stop supplying Wagner, does Progozhin order his equipment on Amazon Prime? Will he pay extra for expedited shipping?

For that matter, how many of the Wagner forces supported the coup once they knew what was going on? Most of them had no idea what was happening, and when they found out they were probably all "Overthrowing some tin-pot African dictatorship is one thing, but if we do this we're going to get creamed!" and refused to continue.

Don't get me wrong. The insurrection was pretty fucked up for Putin, and he probably put his fist through a wall or two over this. Unless it turns out that it was actually a complicated 4-D psyop, which is pretty unlikely but not impossible. But without the collapse of the Russian army it had no chance of succeeding, and Progozhin must have realised that. And that is why it was a silly little drive to Moscow.

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Putin is a completely ineffectual leader incapable of dealing with outright treason and at the same time the most evil man on the planet who has his enemies killed by "falling out of windows" and poisonings at the drop of the hat.

He's losing support of some of the people who have been fighting for him.

And then what happens? Let's say that Wagner arrest or kill the guards there and take over the building, and Progozhin walks into Putin's office and sits in his chair. Now what?

Coup d'état. It happens. Look it up.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

He's losing support of some of the people who have been fighting for him.

Of course he is. Care to name any?

Coup d'état. It happens. Look it up.

I know what a coup is. I'm asking what you think happens next once Progozhin takes over the Duma building. It's not a game of Capture The Flag where once he takes a single building the "President Of Russia" achievement is unlocked and he goes on to the next level of the game.

If occupying a building is all it takes, Trump would be POTUS right now. Of course having Wagner hypothetically take the Duma building would be of great symbolic value, but that's not enough for a successful coup. How does he hold it? If the courts, police, governors, military and public refuse to accept his legitimacy as new president, what happens then? How does he hold it? How does he force the military etc to obey his orders?

There's a saying that "Amateurs talk weapons, professionals talk logistics" which is true about military coups too. If the MoD refuse to recognise him as new president, how does he convince them to send equipment and money to pay his soldiers?

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Of course he is. Care to name any?

Yevgeny Prigozhin. Are you not following this conversation?

I know what a coup is.

Good. It sounded like your thought that taking a government with an army doesn't work.

[–]weavilsatemyface 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yevgeny Prigozhin. Are you not following this conversation?

Sorry, I thought that in context you meant people in the Russian government or military have abandoned Putin, not merely a mercenary who made an aborted march towards the capital.

In any case, the fact that Prigozhin is still walking around alive and well suggests that there's something weird about this. If he's not in jail now, Putin thinks he can still use him. Ruthless dictators like Putin /s don't leave traitorous mercenaries alive alive unless they're getting something out of the deal.

It sounded like your thought that taking a government with an army doesn't work.

Prigozhin doesn't have an army capable of taking on the Russian government without support from the Russian military or a large proportion of the civilian government itself. Russia is not an unstable failed state, and and the political situation is nothing like 1917 or even that of 1993.

Coups work when the coup leaders have the element of surprise, are able to (figuratively) decapitate the government immediately, and can rely on support or at least unwillingness to resist from the remaining levels of government. He had none of this in Russia.

They have no air support, little in the way of EW capacity, and no more than a handful of AD systems. They were able to shoot down a handful of Russian aircraft (one verified shooting, the rest only according to random bloggers and western sources who have a vested interest in exaggerating the conflict) only because the pilots were totally unaware they were facing a hostile force. They are completely dependent on the Russian MoD for munitions and supplies, apart from whatever they were able to capture from Ukraine.

The entire Wagner force, including support staff and non-combatants, is around 50,000 people, and not all of them are in the Ukraine theatre. That's about 5% of the Russian military, excluding reservists. According to UK security services, the column of Wagner troops that moved on Moscow was around 8000 men, not all of whom were aware that this was an attempted coup (or whatever the hell it was) and who probably would not have taken part if they knew. There's evidence at least two Wagner personnel were murdered for refusing to take part.

As soon as it became obvious that the Moscow National Guard and Chechen forces were preparing to resist, and that there was no popular or regional government support for a coup, Prigozhin stopped the march. Why do you think he did this, if he thought there was a realistic chance of success?