At this point I think it's safe to say the war has failed from the neocon perspective. Sanctions didn't cripple Russia. and once China, India, developing nations like Brazil, and now oil rich gulf states started siding with Russia it was game over. The risk is the neocons become increasingly desperate and continue escalating things. They've already risked nuclear meltdown, nuclear war, and getting caught carrying out acts of terrorism on European energy infrastructure. They even apparently attempted to assassinate Putin using a drone attack on the Kremlin, which is full on crazy, and are now launching cross border attacks directly on Russia. Since they have more or less gotten away with all of these things who knows what they're going to try next.