Trump's loss next month will almost feel like a tragedy

submitted by ShiversRussia2017 from self.debatealtright

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[–]Bagarmoossen 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (4 children)

This is bullshit. Trump has gained momentum after the second debate. Pennsylvania is closer than 2016, Florida is practically in the bag and so are NC and AZ. Biden is an absolute disaster.

I see no reason for pessimism. The fact that this is so close even after this massive 2020 globalist terror campaign is actually very whitepilling. Trump's odds are higher than 2016, not lower.

[–]JuliusCaesar225Nationalist + Socialist 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Trump's odds are higher than 2016, not lower.

They are not though. Fivethirtyeight which analyzes all the various polling puts his chances at around 12%.

[–]Bagarmoossen 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

FiveThirtyEight was wrong in 2016. NYT and others had him at a 2% chance of winning. These statistical models are flawed because they use unreliable data and don't take into account things that aren't easily measurable.

[–]JuliusCaesar225Nationalist + Socialist 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

FiveThirtyEight gave him somewhere around 30% last election but that doesn't mean they implied Hilary's election was guaranteed. They have also since made alterations in their analysis to attempt to correct some of the flaws from last time.

[–]Bagarmoossen 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Also keep in mind polls have them tied in places like Texas and Georgia. The chance of it actually being tied are almost zero. Polls are for various reasons overestimating dem support and enthusiasm pretty much everywhere.