The Covid™ vaccines are causing cancer. (No longer "theory" - upgraded to "unofficially official".)

submitted by xolotltlalo from twitter.com

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[–]ActuallyNot 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

This is not a study of actual lives saved. It's a model.

FFS.

Please link to your estimate that didn't use modelling, and will talk about which one makes better estimates.

Modelling proves absolutely nothing.

I take it you don't fly in aeroplanes, enter large buildings or cross bridges?

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Please link to your estimate that didn't use modelling, and will talk about which one makes better estimates.

I don't need to have an alternate model in order to critique your model.

But for what it's worth, mine would be much, much simpler (in fact too simple):

  • With an IFR of about 0.07, there will be about 1 death per approximately 1428 infections. So to prevent one death, you need to vaccinate 141×1428 = 201348 people.
  • Pfizer's own testing suggests 1 in 800 people will have a serious or severe adverse reaction. Let's say that only 1 in 100 of those are fatal. So to prevent one Covid death, we vaccinate 201348 people, of whom 251 will have a severe adverse reaction, and two will die.

I think that's much more plausible than "saved millions of lives" nonsense. If so many lives have been saved, why are excess deaths so high compared to pre-pandemic averages?

I take it you don't fly in aeroplanes, enter large buildings or cross bridges?

All of those things can be accurate tested in model simulations, and by actually building the bridge or flying the plane.

The fact that the plane actually does fly proves that the model used is a good fit to reality. If a plane crashes, aircraft builders don't say "But according to our model, the plane couldn't have crashed, so you're spreading disinformation about aircraft, you're an anti-planer conspiracy theorist" like vaxists do to reports of excess death and vaccine adverse effects.

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't need to have an alternate model in order to critique your model.

You didn't critique my model. You said that the paper I linked to used modelling.

While that's true, it's not a critique.

But for what it's worth, mine would be much, much simpler (in fact too simple):

With an IFR of about 0.07, there will be about 1 death per approximately 1428 infections.

Do you mean with an IFR of 0.07%?

An IFR of 0.07 would be 100 deaths per approximately 1428 infections.

It depends a lot on who. The IFR for an 80 year old is about 8%. For a 40 year old, it's only 0.18%.

0.07% is fair for people in their early 30s or younger. Source

Overall the IFR is about 1% or 2%. Source, so a better estimate to prevent one death would be to vaccinate

So to prevent one death, you need to vaccinate 141×1428 = 201348 people.

To stop 1428 infections you reckon you need to vaccinate 141 times that?

Why?

Pfizer's own testing suggests 1 in 800 people will have a serious or severe adverse reaction. Let's say that only 1 in 100 of those are fatal.

It might be nearer 1 in 10. This paper suggests 302 deaths from adverse events from 14.6 million doses for Pfizer.

If so many lives have been saved, why are excess deaths so high compared to pre-pandemic averages?

Covid killing people, mostly.

All of those things can be accurate tested in model simulations

I would have thought so. But you claim that Modelling proves absolutely nothing. It's a fairy tale and pure junk science.

The fact that the plane actually does fly proves that the model used is a good fit to reality.

The maintenance of the plane's parts are calculated by modelling. It's not that it flies, it's that you appear to trust the modelling.

If a plane crashes, aircraft builders don't say "But according to our model, the plane couldn't have crashed, so you're spreading disinformation about aircraft, you're an anti-planer conspiracy theorist"

If a part fails before it is modelled to fail, the manufacturers will absolutely look for what was wrong with the part, not the model.

But Vaccines haven't crashed. As evidenced by the millions of lives saved.