I try to steer clear of "trans cult" accusations because I think they're extreme

Extreme accusations for extreme behaviors. Trans rights activists' behaviors, beliefs, and actions are extreme, and they follow a specific set of beliefs, so I think it is plenty justified to describe gender ideology as cult-like. Relevant definitions from Oxford English Dictionary (as just one example, not that I think of this as a particular authority):

1. a way of life, an attitude, an idea, etc. that has become very popular

2. a small group of people who have extreme religious beliefs and who are not part of any established religion

3. a system of religious beliefs and practices

https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/us/definition/english/cult_1#:~:text=a%20small%20group%20of%20people,home%20and%20joined%20a%20cult.

You could argue that only definition #1 applies to gender ideology-- but that's still a fair use of the word. Gender ideology does not strictly speaking involve a belief in some sort of god(s) or supernatural force, so you can't exactly call it a religion, but it is an ideology that employs cult tactics. Examples of cult-like behavior I've seen from hardcore trans rights activists:

• love bombing and a surrogate family - you can see this on the trans subreddits, AL (actualtransbians, that is), "transball" subreddits, etc. Anybody who comes out as trans or as a trans defender is 1. lavished with praise 2. if they haven't come out as trans, are bombarded with messages that they may be in denial about being trans.
• shunning -- cancel culture is one example of this, but I've also witnessed this on a much smaller level among people my age (I'm in my 20s) who put down, dismiss, and encourage others to avoid anyone who is deemed even slightly "problematic"
• elitism -- if you don't agree with gender ideology you are deemed ignorant, stupid, unenlightened, a bigot, whatever. Active discouragement of engagement with people who disagree.
• people who leave the group are villainized -- esp. detrans people whose stories and experiences don't fit the idealized narratives of gender ideology.

Not really a source but just a place I found some of those examples^: https://blog.usejournal.com/how-cults-entrap-people-d2f012c10149

Sorry, I know it might seem like I'm splitting hairs here, but your comment made me curious enough to read about it more, so thank you very much, lol.

I honestly don't know what I think about whether it'll hit the fan or not.

Totally fair. I know while we're in the middle of this, it certainly seems difficult to imagine the world not being this way.