How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine play out?

submitted by Zapped from self.AskSaidIt

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[–]StillLessons 6 insightful - 2 fun6 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 2 fun -  (5 children)

You're treating "here" according to the past 72 hours, but the Russians argue that they are responding to 8 years of Ukrainian hostility to and murder of Russian interests and innocent Russian people in eastern Ukraine.

The question is: was the government installed by the US in 2014 (now being attacked) legitimate? If that government represented only a catspaw for the puppetmasters in DC and Davos, which is worse? Corrupt US/Davos government or corrupt Russian government? These aren't "whataboutery"; they are fundamental questions of legitimacy.

Another central part of the problem is considering Ukraine to be a single entity. If there is one thing that is completely clear, it is that people in the Donbass and Crimea do not align with people in western Ukraine. What would be considered a legitimate government for western Ukraine is not the same as what would be considered a legitimate government for the Donbass and Crimea.

It'll be interesting to see what Putin and the Russian security state do from here. If they try to hold on to western Ukraine, the tables will have been turned. Rather than the Ukrainian government wasting resources trying to hold on to the Donbass, it will become the Russian government wasting resources trying to hold on to western Ukraine. If they're smart, they will eliminate the Ukrainian military threat and then withdraw to the Donbass, leaving the Ukrainians and their western backers in control of that part of Ukraine where Russia is viewed as the arch-enemy.

[–]Zapped[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Wouldn't that give reason to accept Ukraine into NATO, unless Russia can negotiate a truce for withdrawing?

[–]StillLessons 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

That's a very good point.

If the US/Davos crew is remotely capable of accepting any Russian legitimate interest in self defense, Russia would make that a condition of exiting Ukraine, that Ukraine can never join NATO. This would be simply to state formally what Russian military actions today are making abundantly clear. For Ukraine to be part of NATO would be from the Russian perspective equivalent to a declaration of war on Russia by US/Davos. Basically, this is what we are seeing today. Even without a formal declaration of alliance, Russia sees Ukraine acting in the US/Davos interests, and they will not accept that under any scenario. I keep repeating, from the Russian perspective, Ukraine as an ally of US/Davos is an existential threat to Russia itself. That they are willing to go to war over this demonstrates this is beyond politics for Russia. They feel existentially threatened and are acting accordingly.

[–]HiddenFox 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (2 children)

Good points seeing it from Russia's POV. It would kind of be like if...I don't know... Cuba joined up with Russia and starting putting Russian ICMBs in their territory?!? What would the USA do?

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I was thinking about that. The big difference is that Russia put nuclear warheads on those missiles aimed at the U.S. from 90 miles away. Does the U.S. have nuclear missiles in Europe? They have conventional (gravity) bombs at several airbases, but I don't know of any missiles.

[–]HiddenFox 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

My brother is in the navy. Once, my father asked him if he was ever worried about getting into a real fight one day. My brother answered with "We are pretty much just for show these days. We will never fire a missile at someone who could really fight back. War is fought with economics and computers now." That was back around 2006 when he said that.

My point is, with Ukraine aligned with the west, they can further imposes economic hardships on Russia. (Think of that pipeline for starters) While not nukes, it's just as devastating in it's own way. Economic strangulation is its own WMD.