How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine play out?

submitted by Zapped from self.AskSaidIt

Do you think this is a permanent occupation? Is it for regime change to install a puppet government? Will Putin use Ukraine as a bargaining chip for something else? Will an unkown player show up? The situation is changing fast as of 13:00 (1:00pm) EST in the U.S.

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[–]StillLessons 8 insightful - 2 fun8 insightful - 1 fun9 insightful - 2 fun -  (13 children)

I was considering a similar post to this one, but my question was subtly different.

The western side is portraying this as "Russian aggression" and plucking the usual emotional fear that Russia is aiming - in the long run - to conquer as much of Europe as they can. This is an emotional note the western elite have played on for 75 years now. it was a joke when I was growing up: "The Russians are coming!"

My question would be: is that interpretation correct, or has Russia acted fundamentally defensively here? The Russians had a hostile government on their western border which they needed to eliminate in order to secure their flank.

In the construct of the western elite, the Russians are the active aggressors. In the construct of the Russians, the western elites are the aggressors, and the Russians are reacting to prevent the threat of invasion of Russia.

Which of these two stories makes more sense to each of us determines how we react to the events we are witnessing.

To answer your question more directly, I can only say I have no idea. We'll need more time to see how events play out. This is very early moments in an active military campaign, and the fog of war is still the dominating factor.

[–]jet199 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (6 children)

I think it's pretty clear which side is the invading force here.

No amount of word play or whataboutery is going to hide that.

[–]StillLessons 6 insightful - 2 fun6 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 2 fun -  (5 children)

You're treating "here" according to the past 72 hours, but the Russians argue that they are responding to 8 years of Ukrainian hostility to and murder of Russian interests and innocent Russian people in eastern Ukraine.

The question is: was the government installed by the US in 2014 (now being attacked) legitimate? If that government represented only a catspaw for the puppetmasters in DC and Davos, which is worse? Corrupt US/Davos government or corrupt Russian government? These aren't "whataboutery"; they are fundamental questions of legitimacy.

Another central part of the problem is considering Ukraine to be a single entity. If there is one thing that is completely clear, it is that people in the Donbass and Crimea do not align with people in western Ukraine. What would be considered a legitimate government for western Ukraine is not the same as what would be considered a legitimate government for the Donbass and Crimea.

It'll be interesting to see what Putin and the Russian security state do from here. If they try to hold on to western Ukraine, the tables will have been turned. Rather than the Ukrainian government wasting resources trying to hold on to the Donbass, it will become the Russian government wasting resources trying to hold on to western Ukraine. If they're smart, they will eliminate the Ukrainian military threat and then withdraw to the Donbass, leaving the Ukrainians and their western backers in control of that part of Ukraine where Russia is viewed as the arch-enemy.

[–]Zapped[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Wouldn't that give reason to accept Ukraine into NATO, unless Russia can negotiate a truce for withdrawing?

[–]StillLessons 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

That's a very good point.

If the US/Davos crew is remotely capable of accepting any Russian legitimate interest in self defense, Russia would make that a condition of exiting Ukraine, that Ukraine can never join NATO. This would be simply to state formally what Russian military actions today are making abundantly clear. For Ukraine to be part of NATO would be from the Russian perspective equivalent to a declaration of war on Russia by US/Davos. Basically, this is what we are seeing today. Even without a formal declaration of alliance, Russia sees Ukraine acting in the US/Davos interests, and they will not accept that under any scenario. I keep repeating, from the Russian perspective, Ukraine as an ally of US/Davos is an existential threat to Russia itself. That they are willing to go to war over this demonstrates this is beyond politics for Russia. They feel existentially threatened and are acting accordingly.

[–]HiddenFox 3 insightful - 3 fun3 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 3 fun -  (2 children)

Good points seeing it from Russia's POV. It would kind of be like if...I don't know... Cuba joined up with Russia and starting putting Russian ICMBs in their territory?!? What would the USA do?

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I was thinking about that. The big difference is that Russia put nuclear warheads on those missiles aimed at the U.S. from 90 miles away. Does the U.S. have nuclear missiles in Europe? They have conventional (gravity) bombs at several airbases, but I don't know of any missiles.

[–]HiddenFox 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

My brother is in the navy. Once, my father asked him if he was ever worried about getting into a real fight one day. My brother answered with "We are pretty much just for show these days. We will never fire a missile at someone who could really fight back. War is fought with economics and computers now." That was back around 2006 when he said that.

My point is, with Ukraine aligned with the west, they can further imposes economic hardships on Russia. (Think of that pipeline for starters) While not nukes, it's just as devastating in it's own way. Economic strangulation is its own WMD.

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I think you should post that question. It is a good and valid one. I sort of agree, but it seems to me to be a calculated preliminary move that assumes the worst for Russia if they didn't move in. I think they are risking more than they could possibly gain. Putin has a lot of avenues for influence all over the world, but if they are disrupted, he could lose it all. I feel like this is an act of desperation. It has been said that Russia's economy is not doing well, so maybe he feels like he is not risking much. This will cause oil and natural gas prices to go up, but if he has no way to move it now, how does this help?

[–]StillLessons 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

The people who would be interested in the question I pose will read this post, because your question is of equal interest. Thus they will see the question here.

I agree this is an act of desperation. That's part of why I lean against the "Russia as aggressor" camp. To my eye, the Russians are not thinking in terms of gain; they're thinking in terms of survival. They know that taking Ukraine has destroyed huge amounts of potential business and development; they're not stupid. They have sunk billions of dollars into the Nordstream projects. They know those investments are severely threatened by their current actions. If they were in "expansion" mode, they would be protecting the vehicles of that expansion. The fact that instead of protecting those assets, they are putting this investment at risk tells me they see the existential threats to them as sufficiently dangerous that they cannot afford to worry about "getting more". They are now acting to try to defend what they have. As they say in football, "the best defense is a good offense." I see the Russians taking that dictum to its logical conclusion.

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I wonder what has been going on covertly between the West and Russia that we haven't heard. The West could be putting screws to some of Putin's "avenues" I referred to that would explain why he feels the need to take this risk.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Germany is also a very interesting player here. While the risks to Russia are now obvious and becoming reality in real time, we shouldn't forget that the other end of Nordstream is Germany, and what do they do if the gas is actually cut off? These kinds of risk are not just one sided... are the Germans ready to face the cost of this conflict head on?

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I wonder what agreements and concessions by the rest of the West will be made to help them out.

[–]On-Point 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Which country invaded the other?

[–][deleted] 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

A war in a series of wars that will lead to a world war.

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

I can see this happening.

[–]Rob3122 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

Ukraine already has a puppet (judai) government that Putin wants to remove. Russia will have taken Ukraine by next week.

[–]Zapped[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

And then what?

[–]Rob3122 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

Not sure at the moment. If I was in charge of China I'd be looking to take Taiwan next. USA is a weak nation thanks to all the jewification allowed by our so-called "leaders". As for Russia I expect them to continue to reform the old Russia after they've taken Ukraine.

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

I think China will see how this plays out before executing a plan to take Taiwan. I believe they are more advanced technologically and have better intelligence at this point than Russia.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

Looks like the Ukrainian prez is sueing for peace, he's agreed to neutrality and Russia is apparently willing to talk.

[–]Zapped[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Where are you getting your info? I haven't seen that.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

https://www.rt.com/russia/550546-zelensky-nato-ukraine-neutrality/ just finally ran across one of them. Sounds like they're going after Kyev anyways now though, not sure.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Shit I should have saved it. Either the President or the Foreign Secretary tweeted complaining their allies offer nothing but words and they're willing to talk to anyone who will come to the table, even to discuss neutrality. Not sure if it's deleted now or I just can't find it. And on the other side, I get that impression from Russian media. This is being sold as a security problem to the Russian people, they wouldn't have cause if Ukraine shuns NATO and gives up the two largely Russian areas that were already taken.

[–]Feldheld 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

Most importantly, the whole western world has been caught with their pants down. The pax americana is no more. NATO doesnt command respect anymore, the EU is defenseless, and nobody will risk his life or sacrifice anything for the illigitimate Biden administration. This will massively accelerate the ongoing collapse of the west.

The fertile ground for this crisis is the intellectual and moral corruption of the western populations after 75 years of unparalleled peace and prosperity.

Putin will play cat and mouse with its neighbours as he pleases. The reaction in the EU, UK and USA will be very similar to the reaction to nazi Germany in the early 1930s. Appeasement, display of cowardice and complacency in the face of open aggression. We have the weakest possible leadership in almost all EU countries, all these clowns are completely in over their heads and have absolutely no clue of anything. Any turkish cleaning woman in the EU parliament would be able do a better job than these zeros.

[–]BossBrick 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

ukraine just captured a bunch of russian soilders who apparently didn't even know where the fuck they were headed and they voiced that they really weren't keen on dying for putins cause.

I think this is a heil mary pass for putin before something happens to him or is removed.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

[–]jw329 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I don't know what the true story is but theres always two side of the story. Here is one

https://web.archive.org/web/20220224180047/https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496745429672857602.html

[–]On-Point 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

Ahh. The tinfoil hat version.

[–]IkeConn 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If the US government was smart, and we all know it isn't, they would pull another Charlie Wilson maneuver on Russia in the Ukraine.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

On the western side I think it may aggravate even more shortages both house hold goods and entertainment industry will take a hit because the devs and higher ups will pause and rethink if the 'risk' is worth it. Remember the industry is ran by the 'bank' type people now not nerds so they view things thru monetary risk vs reward so when wars go on like this (and there's worse to come) the industry people will tighten their belts and cut corners wherever.

This happened in the Obama era when rich people fled the US and took all their money/possessions with them denouncing their citizenship as Obama was a clear threat to capitalism and all that remained was the globalists who don't care what side they take whatever gives them the most power: In the Bush era they wanted the Amero Petro Dollar which eventually was scrapped as they all sided with the Chinese companies that spy on you and when your with China you cannot leave least you lose your live:

The few that got out had to give up everything they worked for and start over from NOTHING but their lives: