Bloomberg report on the russia's economic damage: No airplanes, no cell phones, food shortages, no medicine, no heavy industry

submitted by Site_rly_sux from bloomberg.com

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[–]Site_rly_sux[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Thanks for sharing your experiences. I do disagree with you on a number of points, around Browder and J6 and Biden, but we don't need to debate on those anyway, so I won't say more about it.

I will just check one thing with you - because I think you may have misread the article - you wrote this:

The number of stories "leaked" from inside the US establishment with such unspecified sourcing is now legion.

I just want to clarify that the report was supposedly leaked from the ruzzian side, not the US establishment. In other words, this is, allegedly, a report produced by ruzzian economists and not american.

Anyway, we can at least practice some logical positivism in how we approach this report.

A hypothesis which we could test is: are the GDP projections in the report correct?

The null hypothesis is - the projections have no bearing on reality.

Then we can watch and see which more conforms to reality.

I think the projections will turn out to be correct - and I wrote why above (copied below). I think your argument is that the null hypothesis will be closer to the truth. So let's see.

how are they doing fine while (1) the most sanctioned nation on earth (2) no gas sales to Europe any more (3) hundreds of billions of foreign reserves forfeited? What is your economic theory that a nation can undergo these three things during wartime, while not experiencing any ill effects?

[–]StillLessons 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I was aware in writing my comment that they are claiming this to be a Russian internal report. But the claim of unspecified reports is a tactic that has been beaten to death over the past few years in a variety of contexts. Once you claim an unspecified report by unspecified people it doesn't matter where it comes from. You can fill in the blanks to tell the story you want to tell.

As you say, we will watch the situation develop on the ground. Part of my vehemence on this subject is there has been a lot of reporting - usually equally anonymously sourced - about how the Russian advance in Ukraine was about to collapse, the Russian soldiers were deeply demoralized, etc. Yet the Russians have occupied significant chunks of what was Ukraine. The positions of the armies on the ground argue against the story of Russian military collapse. For a military that was been claimed to be a demoralized mess, the Russian military now controls an awful lot of ground they didn't control before.

[–]Site_rly_sux[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Ok so it wasn't a misreading, great.

I would just make mention of the fact that since the high water mark in March 2022, the ruzzia has taken a few sq miles, while Ukraine has liberated a whole lot more, so "the Russian military now controls an awful lot of ground they didn't control before" pretty much stopped being true by April.

https://saidit.net/s/WorldNews/comments/9grh/a_quarter_year_in_the_making_worlds_second_best/

Also, today, there are two Ukrainian offensives in the north and south which are actively gaining ground - and massive if true - luhansk province is no longer under total ruzzian control. So they are certainly collapsing, it's just taking a bit longer than some optimistic reports