Vadimir Putin's next legitimate military target is Latvia.

submitted by jerryk from self.WayOfTheBern

As the Russians continue to make steady progress in their winter offensive, and as the prospects for continued aid to Ukraine from NATO wither on the vine, it's becoming clear what Russia's next legitimate military target will be -- Latvia. Latvia bars clear access to Kaliningrad, which is a part of Russia, and Russia would like that situation rectified. They don't need all of Latvia, but, they do need a viable rail link to their territory in Kaliningrad. If this can be arranged by peaceful negotiations, all the better. If not, then some type of military action by Russia, will, of course, be necessary. Now, of course, from the standpoint of NATO, this would be an attack on a clear NATO member, and would trigger Article 5. So, what exactly would NATO do about it? I think that is far from clear. I could certainly imagine them doing nothing whatsoever, as long as the territory demanded was fairly limited. I cannot imagine a massive call-up of troops in France, Germany, Italy and Britain on Latvia's account, let alone in the U.S. I could certainly imagine some arms being sent, but, the fighting in such a small country would probably be over rather quickly. Then what? I would imagine that Russia probably could get what if wanted from Latvia, and hold onto it, NATO membership or no. I can't really see a perpetual state of war existing between all NATO members and Russia merely over a corridor to Kaliningrad, if that's all Russia wants, and that's all Russia takes. Sure, NATO might formerly refuse to acknowledge the Russian acquisition of territory in Latvia, but, who really cares? I'm sure the Russians don't. So, sometime within the next three to five years, I would say the Russians will get their corridor to Kaliningrad through Latvia, by hook, or by crook. And, NATO won't really do a damn thing about it.

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[–]unagisongsBurn down Reddit! 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

The lack of imagination is typically what I expect from western analysis. If Russia acts like the west they are going to get stomped. Only a fool carelessly throws themselves into wars of aggression thinking they can "best" small countries without consequences. The US desperately wants Russia to attack a NATO country so they have every excuse to go after them and drag all the toddling little NATO members along with them. Russia doesn't have to take anything further. They've already proved they are still the big dog on the block. Political leverage is as important as when and how it's used. The west spends their political capital stupidly and wastefully lurching from war to war. Russia is more careful in their spending and significantly more patient which is why they winning in the Ukraine.

[–]jerryk[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

You may well be correct. I'm merely posing a fairly plausible scenario. Bear in mind, I'm suggesting Russia might NOT have to engage in any military action at all to get what it wants from Latvia, and that would probably Russia's first choice. However, I suspect they could actually get away with limited military action against a small NATO member state. I'm well aware that Russia, and Vladimir Putin are highly sophisticated in their moves internationally, and that this is quite typical of Russian international behavior, historically. That's why the comparisons of Putin and Hitler in the West are so ridiculous!

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I don't foresee this happening, at least not any time soon and if Russia can achieve its goal of continuing to supply Kalingrad without this. The Suwalki corridor, which runs from Belarus to Kalingrad more or less along the Polish-Lithanian border and was established in the 1920s, is how this was managed until the war in Ukraine.

They have other tools at their disposal, such as the tit-for-tat prohibition against the continued movement of goods from East and Southeast Asia across Russia and into the Baltic States. This would be devastating to those economies and while the Russophobia among the political leaders is off the charts, the governments aren't so solid they could easily withstand the backlash from their populations. Remember that in 2022 the Estonian government collapsed due to domestic problems. Even if large numbers of the people in these States share that Russophobia, it's unlikely it would take precedence over the bread-and-butter issues of food and economic security.

And Russia is in a different place now than it was when this NATO-driven agenda took hold, not only various Baltic States threatening the Suwalki Corridor agreement but the Scandinavian countries clearly intending to make it difficult for Russia to supply Kalingrad via sea - which smacks of a blockade that violates international standards. As fungible as these are from the UN Security Council's standpoint, pressure could be brought to bear in the UN General Assembly. It wouldn't be a slam dunk by any stretch, but would once again show NATO and the EU and the US as terrorist organizations that not only enable humanitarian crises but actively cause them.

[–]jerryk[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Could be. I guess I'm not necessarily arguing for the necessity of this, from Russia's point of view, but, for its feasibility, and attractiveness. I really believe NATO is a paper tiger by this stage, and showing that publicly could be very, very useful for Russia. I think the NATO leadership are so wrapped up in lies and unreality by this stage that they're scarcely capable of doing anything, at all, under any circumstances!

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

It would feed into the West's propagandist rantings about Russia wanting to invade Europe and re-create the Russian Empire, and I think Russian leaders are too savvy to fall into that trap besides taking a much more nuanced and ultimately more effective approach in dealing with the West. They don't have to show the world what a paper tiger NATO is, NATO did that all by itself - a security alliance that depleted its stockpile of weapons and hasn't maintained its armed forces is rendered pathetic when it rattles its sabers. Not that they won't keep trying to foment a conflict but my guess is they'll fall back on their standard MO of color revolutions and false flags throughout the region proximate to Russia, like the snakes they are.