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[–]SoCo 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Funny thing about markets, is they their value on paper is driven by supply and demand, but in reality it is driven largely by human sentiment. This includes the sentiment of perceived and predicted future supply and demand. Because of this, markets frequently start realizing a price change, before the supply/demand impacting events even happen.

This understanding would imply that expected future inflation may largely already be baked into today's value. The only question is how far in the future, and how confident/pessimistic is that perceived future inflation outlook it is based on. Today's value may represent expected inflation to the end of the year, but by the end of the year, it will probably have already mostly baked in the expected inflation of the next fiscal quarter, at least.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

That is a mind-tickling theory ! It feels totally sound at first glance. Saved.

It is something like a short-feedback-loop, i've been thinking for a long time already...