Reports of explosions as Russian forces launch Ukraine military assault - targeting military infrastructure, aviation, and air defenses

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[–]magnora7[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

But the Donbass region is in fact logically more Russian than Ukranian.

Yes I don't disagree. In the easternmost areas the support to become Russian is over 50% with some of the public so it seems fair if they want to change over. And Russia recognized the independence of those two regions in Donbass just on Monday. All this seems fine.

What's not fine is the moves on Kiev, which we are seeing more of literally by the hour...

If I were the leader of Ukraine I would take those far easternmost regions that are over 50% polling to want to go to Russia, give those regions to Russia, and then make a public international cry that the invasions stop. And then if they don't, the whole world would turn on Putin because his reason would be removed. But it would require giving up about 10% of the country. But it could be a route to peace.

However, if the Ukrainian government is trying to fight a war to "preserve the union of Ukraine" so to speak, and never let those easternmost regions go, then it's not going to work. However Russia appears to be doing the military attacks, not Ukraine. If they are attacking Kiev, they are basically forcing all of Ukraine to fight a defensive war. This is very different from just taking Donbass. If they take Kiev, they're trying to conquer a country that mostly doesn't want them.

[–]StillLessons 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Russia will be stupid if they try to occupy western Ukraine. People are stupid, so it's possible this is what they will do, but their actions thus far are still consistent to me with their stated goal of expelling Ukraine from the Donbass. It'll take a few days to see which of these two pictures is the accurate one.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

To me it looks like maybe 80% likely they're going to try and take land outside the Donbas region. But we will see.

Putin has also said explicitly in his speech about the attacks, that his goal in this attack is to "Demilitarize Ukraine" which seems consistent with wanting to disarm (and thus weaken) the Ukrainian government as a whole, and is consistent with a desire to capture Kiev and Ukraine as a whole. The Donbass is the foot in the door to a larger landgrab, just like the German regions of Czechoslovakia was Hitler's foot in the door to begin grabbing lots of land.

And since Ukraine is not in NATO, what's going to stop Russia? Can the Ukrainian Army defeat the Russian Army? Seems unlikely tbh. What military alliances does Ukraine have? Is the approach of every other nation simply going to be economic sanctions?

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

since Ukraine is not in NATO, what's going to stop Russia?

Just finished listening to Kim Iversen's take on this, and I see a lot of sense in her analysis. She points out that this is fundamentally about Nordstream 2. Russia acts out of self-interest, as everyone does, either personally or as a country. Russia was holding pat as long as there was the advantage to them of western European money coming it to pay for their natural gas. To convince Russia not to act militarily, they must be able to achieve their goals (development, as any country or government desires) through some other means. The US has given Russia absolutely nothing to work with in diplomacy. No matter what the Russians do, the US respond with threats of military force on Russian borders. If we want to "stop Russia", we need to try to understand what they want. If what they want is a secure western border and the US refuses even to consider the peaceful withdrawal of force to enact that, the Russians will continue to act to secure their border. From the Russian side, remember this is what they are doing. They don't have the power to do more, but they do have the power to prevent Ukraine from posing a direct threat on Russia's border.

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

Welp, the Russian gov't just announced minutes ago they're going to surround Kiev, cut off electricity, and starve them out until they decide to demilitarize. So it looks like it's going to be a regime change by force, they're definitely 100% going after all of Ukraine now. They want regime change, and control of Ukraine. What a crazy act of aggression. They could've won people over if they stopped at Donbas, but they just had to do try and take whole country....

[–]StillLessons 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I've gone back and edited my original comment on here. I concede you are right. The Russian security establishment and Putin have decided they must eliminate the Ukranian government to secure their western flank.

They sure have moved fast...

[–]magnora7[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thanks for conceding to data, I didn't expect to be proven right so quickly... They've really gone full-out on this one. I don't know how they're going to hold up to the international scrutiny this will bring. If they had just limited it to the Donbas regions that'd be one thing, but taking a whole country like this is quite an overreach, especially when over half the country doesn't want to be ruled by Russia.

I'm hoping this is a ploy, and they'll walk it back to just the Donbas region, but it seems very very likely at this point that they're just actually going for Ukraine as a whole.

[–]StillLessons 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It's amazing watching this evolve even within the duration of this exchange between you and me.

Assuming this is correct, then Russia has been drawn into a trap which they very much don't want to be in. Goading Putin into exactly this action has been the plan of the western cabal since day one. I repeat, Russia does not have the resources to be able to hold on to hostile territory, but they couldn't leave a festering sore on their western flank either. They are screwed unless they can figure out how to turn this around quickly.

[–]magnora7[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

It is amazing how fast it is changing. I assume they're going to suddenly roll it back and just be on the Donbas region and be like "aren't you glad we didn't take all of Ukraine" and everyone will be relieved and let them have Donbas.

It's either that, or Russia is going full on land conquest, no holds barred. Which would be suicidal in the long run for Russian national stability. Which is why their stock market just halved itself in one day.