I've been telling y'all the Ukraine war is just a way to hurt the Russo-Sino war machine. The US govt doesn't care if they win.

submitted by MuskyIndependent from midi.moe

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[–]turtlew0rk 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

It is also a great way to funnel money to the military industrial complex

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

And into the Biden family's bank accounts.

[–]Hematomato 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

I think it's a little unclear what China has to do with any of this. They seem kind of shoehorned in there.

[–]MuskyIndependent[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

China is the real threat, they are sick and tired of the US calling the shots. If you remember they were getting very aggressive over Taiwan. Taiwan is a vital strategic asset. They make 90% of the world's semiconductors. Without those chips, you can't build pretty much anything modern including military vehicles, equipment, missiles, etc. So obviously China can't control Taiwan, it would completely change the balance of power. We know this, they know this, they know we know, and their saber rattling over the island is worrisome. They know we'd have to help defend the island and yet they take an aggressive stance about Taiwan being Chinese territory. It's like they want a fight. Worrisome.

China did not build the world's largest navy for no reason either.

Russian finally comes into the picture because Russia is China's most significant alliance. Russia also is sick of a unipolar world. Everyone pretty much is sick of the US mucking shit up really, but it's interesting to note the Russo-Sino alliance has been speculated about in fiction since around the end of the second world war. People saw this coming way back when.

Russia is dependent on China for technology, Russia is a little backwards technologically. They import chips and agriculture equipment most importantly. And they both share commie history. So they're basically bosom buddies. They're also the most prominent members in BRICS, which might as well be the Axis Powers v2.

So if China wanted to finally pick that fight with the US, they'd need two things. A massive war chest, and their biggest baddest ally. Luckily China's economy collapsed which I'm sure we had absolutely nothing to do with :wink: and Russia is bogged down in a war that was supposed to be over quick.

Wow, what luck, both of the necessary preconditions for war that existed back when China was being uppity are no longer present.

And it only cost $120bn and a whole shitload of slavic lives.

Also important is China is getting a demonstration of exactly how much trouble we could make for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan from Russia's experience in Ukraine.

[–]hfxB0oyAPirate Party 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Russia is dependent on China for technology

And Russia has a vast, almost 17 million square kilometer land mass that's chock-a-block full of natural resources that will be very important to China's manufacturing base.

[–]binaryblob 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I think building semi-conductors, once you get to the level of technology China is already on, is easy, especially when the basic concepts for how these chips are manufactured are known. AFAIK, these manufacturing methods do not depend on secret physics or something like that. The "secret" in EUV of ASML for example, lies in the methods being used to make sure the mirrors aren't damaged during the process from what I understand. I think it's very arrogant and misguided to believe someone else would never figure out the same or superior solution.

I think cloning ASML technology would mostly require engineering and almost no actual science. The historical mile stones achieved by ASML have been widely documented and also help in reverse-engineering the technology.

As such, I don't see why China wouldn't be able to catch up regardless. What does it matter whether China becomes dominant right now or in the next twenty years? If the West wants to stop Chinese dominance, they should invade China and basically kill every inhabitant with a scorched earth method. In short, I have no idea what the plan is with China, but I am afraid there isn't any plan, let alone a strategy to speak of.

[–]MuskyIndependent[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

We're trying to replicate the tech. IBM recently built the largest chip manufacturing plant in North America and there was a $8bn subsidy towards increasing domestic production. I'm not saying we can't replicate it but we haven't. If China would just chill till our capacity was there, we wouldn't give two fucks about Taiwan which makes them pushing the issue concerning. Like they want to pick a fight.

As such, I don't see why China wouldn't be able to catch up regardless. What does it matter whether China becomes dominant right now or in the next twenty years

I don't think it's a given. So far China has built itself on stealing IP, producing cheap goods of questionable quality, and rampant real estate speculation that's falling apart. They don't really innovate.

[–]binaryblob 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If the US were trying to replicate the tech, wouldn't there be some major trade war between The Netherlands and the US? Also, while I don't know the exact compartimentalization of information and know-how, but doesn't the US part of ASML know what the part in The Netherlands knows?

Also, the mirrors would have to be copied as well, and I doubt even ASML could eliminate that dependency.

[–]Rah 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

They're also the most prominent members in BRICS, which might as well be the Axis Powers v2

My nigga, South Africa's current regime was propped by the US. Now also Brazil. India is neutral and will only play ball until Pakistan shows up. US foreign policy knows all of this and must keep all these nations very unstable politically so Russia and China cannot predict their policies.

Just so you know, for example, Putin cancelled an oil embargo exemption for Brazil recently. Its a direct "you wanna play, i'll play" strike in an already tenous political member of BRICS that will now be subsumed by China with direct support from the US, because the right players will earn their share, as they had during their trip to buy Africa.

[–]Hematomato 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

I think China's economy collapsed for super obvious reasons: they were driving themselves massively into debt trying to fund every project imaginable, whether it had any merit or not.

For ten years they've just been like "Build! Build! Build, no matter what! Fucking build!!"

They've got cities over there with beautifully efficient roads, lovely and affordable houses... and no population. Completely empty ghost cities. Because they were addicted to building stuff.

[–]MuskyIndependent[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I think China's economy collapsed for super obvious reasons: they were driving themselves massively into debt trying to fund every project imaginable, whether it had any merit or not

Evergrande kicked off the Chinese housing market crisis, the US could conceivably been involved in making that happen. https://saidit.net/s/whatever/comments/bjde/hypothetical_scenario_generated_by_ai/ The AI reversed the countries but some of it's plausible. A few billion dollars leveraged heavily, fake buyers, I think the CIA/NSA could totally pull it off.

[–]Hematomato 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Any forester will tell you: if the forest's knee-deep in dead pine needles, it truly does not matter who brings the match.

[–]Dune1032 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

Only by winning can the Russian military by degraded. If Russia conquers Ukraine, it will use the resources of Ukraine to quickly rebuild.

[–]MuskyIndependent[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Russia is not lacking in natural resources, although they probably want Ukraine for its uranium deposits, that doesn't impact their conventional forces.

If Russia had swept through Ukraine they'd have bolstered their morale and they might very well be itching for another victory. As it is, what was supposed to be a quick little fun war has become expensive and bloody. It saps their collective will for further war.

Especially since Russia's is largely fielding a conscript rather than professional army.

[–]Dune1032 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Ukraine is considered the breadbasket of Europe. If Russia conquers Ukraine, it will control this resource. Russia would also be able to get recruits from Ukraine although they might not be very loyal. In World War II, Germany got recruits from the countries it conquered. In the invasion of Normandy, American troops captured a German soldier recruited from Poland. He promptly gave the Americans German positions. On the other hand, the 5th SS Panzer Division was composed of volunteers from Nordic countries including those which Germany conquered.

[–]Rah 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Russia hasnt used any of their cutting edge equipment yet. They know the big guns need to stay hidden from the enemy at all costs.

[–]Dune1032 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

What are these cutting edge equipment?

[–]Rah 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Supersonic EMP missiles

[–]Dune1032 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Well, the Russians better use them soon. The M-1 Abrams tank has already arrived in Ukraine. The US will be supplying ATACMS. Germany might supply Taurus. Of course, Ukraine will be getting F-16s once their pilots are trained.