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[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (11 children)

The increase in CO2 is dramatic, and throwing the climate into a state that no existing species has co-existed with. It is not similar to the past.

It looks like we were as high as 1000ppm less than 100 million years ago. https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Co2-levels-historic.jpg Your 'spike' is only 100ppm.

This graph sure as fuck makes it look like we are coming out of a cooling period, which may explain the entirely of the C02 increases: https://www.esc.cam.ac.uk/files/media/cenogrid-climate-with-projection.png

It's proven. It's causal. It's from physical first principles.

Just because C02 is a greenhouse gas, and we have observed it increasing, does not mean that C02 has increased the earth's temperature or whatever the fuck you guys are trying to prove. There are confounding factors, such as other gases having a much much larger greenhouse effect. (80 times higher, as we saw in this video?)

The increase in the atmosphere is not occurring naturally. All the natural systems are absorbing CO2.

If only you had some data to support this assertion. What if temperature increases caused C02 levels in the atmosphere to increase?

Edit: How am I supposed to conclude that there's a causal relationship from this graph? https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/35927/are-we-in-a-low-co2-period-compared-to-the-last-590-million-years

I am not following your math. Are you starting from the assumption that all C02 increases since 1750 are because of fossil fuels? If you don't allow for other causes of C02 increases, then of course you would have to demonize fossil fuels.

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

It looks like we were as high as 1000ppm less than 100 million years ago.

Yep, if we return to the hothouse of the mid cretaceous, we'll all be pretty completely fucked.

Our own ancestor was probably a placental mammal already. Tyrannosaurus Rex and Triceratops hadn't appeared yet. But any infrastructure built by Pleurocoelus would be well suited to the new sea level.

Unfortunately there isn't any, and the most valuable part of our infrastructure would be under water.

This graph sure as fuck makes it look like we are coming out of a cooling period

The broken axis is misleading. The SCRIPPS graph I link to above is a clearer view of the current warming on top of the glaciation cycles of the Quaternary. We're warming from the top of a warm period.

which may explain the entirely of the C02 increases

The CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion already entirely explain them.

Just because C02 is a greenhouse gas, and we have observed it increasing, does not mean that C02 has increased the earth's temperature

Yes it does. That's what an increased greenhouse effect means.

There are confounding factors, such as other gases having a much much larger greenhouse effect.

Methane has an impact too, on the few to several centuries scale. But CO2 is responsible for 74% or 91% of the long lived greenhouse gas warming, depending on whether you count or discount the overlaps with other greenhouse gasses.

If only you had some data to support this assertion.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/carbontracker/

What if temperature increases caused C02 levels in the atmosphere to increase?

Then the CO2 would need to come from somewhere. And it's not. The oceans are absorbing CO2.

Edit: How am I supposed to conclude that there's a causal relationship from this graph?

Don't use that graph. The CO2 levels are from an older version of geocarb, and the temperature levels are from and even more ancient estimate that has been thoroughly superseded. It was from a time when it was thought that the earth just oscillated between "warm" and "cold". It's not true, and is not calibrated to the same timescale. You would need to be trying to mislead your audience to plot those two together on the same chart, because we had much better temperature reconstructions even at early versions of geocarb.

CO2 has warmed the earth at between 1.5°C and 6.3°C per doubling throughout the last 420 million years at least.

Are you starting from the assumption that all C02 increases since 1750 are because of fossil fuels?

No I'm comparing the atmospheric increases in CO2 since 1750 to the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels since 1750. The emissions from fossil fuels are 154% of the increase in the atmosphere.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

Don't use that graph. The CO2 levels are from an older version of geocarb, and the temperature levels are from and even more ancient estimate that has been thoroughly superseded.

Show me a better graph then. No one on that skeptics post said that the data was wrong.

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

Figure one from the paper I already linked is inverted, but at least it's not mixing pre-modern geology temperature reconstructions with a medium modern geological scale carbon model.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

How do you explain Al Gore's hockey stick graph predictions not coming anywhere close to true?

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (6 children)

The hockey stick graph didn't make predictions. It was a reconstruction of past temperatures. By Mann, Bradely and Hughes.

It has been confirmed over a dozen times.

Are you talking about Al Gore's CO2 concentration graph, similar to the graph I link twice above. It's also correct.

[–][deleted] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

I'll have to come back tomorrow with some better denialist shit. Thanks for trying to reach me, I think?

This shit from IPCC is interesting, one of the models predicts that global warming will correct itself https://images.theconversation.com/files/63411/original/kx8srfsn-1414769757.jpg

[–]ActuallyNot 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

I'll have to come back tomorrow with some better denialist shit. Thanks for trying to reach me, I think?

No problem. It's been 15 years since I was getting into climate change arguments regularly, so there's probably some more recent papers.

I lot of the denialist stuff seems to have not changed in that time though.

his shit from IPCC is interesting, one of the models predicts that global warming will correct itself https://images.theconversation.com/files/63411/original/kx8srfsn-1414769757.jpg

RCPs are emission scenarios. RCP 2.6 requires that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions start declining by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. We're already 2023, and CO2 emissions are not declining. They're still increasing except for the CoVID blip in 2020.

[–][deleted] 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (3 children)

Apparently none of the western world is increasing their C02 output? It looks very positive/not scary ever since 1980 or 1990.

How do you go from this chart to California saying I'm no longer allowed to have gas powered lawn tools?

Maybe this is the chart Trump was using :D

https://ourworldindata.org/exports/annual-co-emissions-by-region_v40_850x600.svg

[–]ActuallyNot 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

How do you go from this chart to California saying I'm no longer allowed to have gas powered lawn tools?

Because to get atmospheric CO2 to stop increasing you need to cut emissions by 80% or 90% from 1990 levels.