all 8 comments

[–]sdl5 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Welp. This is bs.

Kagan yup

[–]hfxB0oyA 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Russia is biding its time until they curb stomp Ukraine, I think.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

And while attriting the West's economies and military readiness. They probably didn't anticipate it would be so easy.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Amazingly, this thread was posted by the Kagan-run Institute for the Study of War.

2/ Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military.

3/ Skibitskyi stated that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater.

4/ The apparent Russian ability to generate forces at a rate equal to Russian losses likely provides Russian forces the ability to replenish units that the Russian command has withdrawn from the line due to degradation and later return these replenished units to the front.

5/ ISW has not observed widespread Russian complaints about a lack of rotations throughout the theater since summer 2023, and the overall tempo of Russian operations is consistent with Skibitskyi’s reporting.

6/ Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term.

7/ It is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.


Their assessment from several days ago is reassuringly typical (because too great a deviation in their mindset might fracture the universe):

A Ukrainian public opinion survey on Ukrainian attitudes towards the Ukrainian government and military indicates that Ukrainian society overwhelmingly supports Ukraine’s military and its leadership while experiencing tensions typical in a society fighting an existential defensive war.

A new independent poll from the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center (NORC) found that Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains strong domestic support for his regime and his war in Ukraine, despite relatively poor economic conditions and living standards in Russia.

[–]kingsmegLiberté, égalité, fraternité 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military.

I don't fucking think so. Russia is keeping serious reserves ready for NATO joining the fray.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I missed that bolded part, and you're right. Last estimate I heard of their military was something like 920K and rising steadily.

[–]kingsmegLiberté, égalité, fraternité 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If it's written by a Kagan, it's propaganda.

[–]automoderator[M] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

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