So why is Russia acting in what would seem to be an out of character manner, telegraphing a maximalist view of what its Special Military Operation aims translate into when big funding packages in the US and EU are in play? Specifically, that if no one tries to come to a deal soon, Russia will install a more cooperative government, which translates into taking most or all of Ukraine.

Russian citizens criticized their government, particularly early in the war, for its weak propaganda efforts. But it looks to have played the smarter long game, with considerable diplomatic out-reach and exploiting Collective West inattention to the considerable cost of sanctions blowback on many developing economies.

But as far as I can tell, the foreign debt of Ukraine banks is only $1.8 billion. Private external debt seems to lie mainly in other sectors. So Russia could without much outlay prop up the banks if needed. But that would or should mean it also means the Russian Central Bank becomes their regulator, and the entire banking system is under new oversight and rules.

More interesting is the opportunities that a move like this might open up. Recall that Ukraine refused to renew the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation in 2019, so it expired in March. That treaty, by the way, is the one by which Russia recognized the invoilability of Ukraine’s borders, respect its territorial integrity, and otherwise not harm Ukraine’s national security. So Russia has no current treaties with Ukraine at Ukraine’s instigation, particularly with respect to important matters like not invading.

The fact that Russia and Ukraine stopped recognizing each other as sovereign states means Russia has no obligation to act as a “successor” to any Ukraine private or government commitments.