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[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Covid and work-from-home, and 7% interest rates are the one, two kick in the teeth for CRE. IMHO, this meltdown will be worse than 2008. And it's going to happen faster too, because unlike home mortgages, CRE borrowers are far more likely to default, leaving the banks with property worth less than the money owed.

I'm calling a top to equities. $69 bbl oil (among other commodities) is proof that the economy is in slow-down, if not actual recession. The market probably won't figure it out until February when retail start laying off and CRE start defaulting on payments.

[–]sdl5 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Agreed... Though I think the fudging of Q4 data for political coverup for 2 or 3 years now will continue, and this will create a screen the market will likely fail to see past- so end of March or a bit after is my guess.