Timing in the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominating process: Joe, Hunter, Bobby, Kamala, Gavin & you-know-who

submitted by emorej from self.WayOfTheBern

Timing will figure large in this Presidential electoral cycle

A. In order to maximize 2024 general election prospects of the Democratic nominee:

  • Biden needs to withdraw his candidacy (for health reasons, of course) ASAP, in order to make the Hunter Biden story less newsworthy, and to enable the successor establishment favorite to blame most things mainly on Biden.
  • But blaming Biden for the Ukraine war would be easier if, before--rather than after his withdrawal, the Ukrainian military is forced into a big surrender, retreat and/or removal of Zelensky (and his main Bandera-ite advisors). Meanwhile, Putin seems to be in no hurry to move on from his attrition strategy.
  • Blaming Biden for the South Carolina-ization, and reinforcement of Super Delegates’ powers, of the Democratic primary process should be relatively easy because they seem to be moving fast. But a final commitment to these changes, by driving RFK Jr. into seeking non-Democratic ballot access, could badly hurt the Democratic nominee.

B. What about Kamala?

  1. Kamala will not easily depart from the ticket. Can she head a winning ticket? (Can she even beat RFK Jr. in a primary?)
  2. But is Kamala smart enough to accept a Newsom re-appointment to her old US Senate seat? (If Teddy Kennedy could live down Chappaquiddick by working hard in the Senate, then Kamala could theoretically rebuild her image and presentation skills there).
  3. Is there anybody who could fit into the top of the 2024 ticket above Kamala? In order to recruit a demographically balancing white (Jewish, no less) man who has “transitional one-termer” written all over him, would the-powers-that-be be willing to have four years (or perhaps a much shorter period) of a President bully-pulpit-ing for a few anti-donor policies such as Medicare For All and a higher national minimum wage? Are the Democratic Party’s upcoming times desperate enough to call for such a desperate measure?
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[–][deleted] 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Imo the DNC will wait until after the primary. Then will install Newsom at the convention. Their first order of business is to rig the primaries.

[–]MeganDelacroix🤡🌎 detainee 8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 0 fun9 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Kamala herself isn't a problem; it's the constituencies the DNC encouraged to see Kamala as their near-apotheosis that are the DNC's problem. We know the machine was able to bring Bernie to heel; HeelsUp is not likely to be a tougher proposition. Blacks, women, and black women aren't going to switch en masse to the GOP, but even a slight downtick in enthusiasm and turnout among such historically lopsided voters can have sufficiently disastrous effects in a sufficient number of states to put 270 out of reach.

They need to figure out two coordinated face-saving exits, and while no one will stay home if Biden's not on the ticket, whatever the reason, Kamala's has to be plausible.

[–]InumaGaming Socialist 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

Kamala's has to be plausible.

Haaaaahahahaha!

[–]MeganDelacroix🤡🌎 detainee 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yeah, I mean, good luck there with anyone outside the KHive, but they have to try.

[–]FThumbStay thirsty, my friends 12 insightful - 5 fun12 insightful - 4 fun13 insightful - 5 fun -  (4 children)

Good questions.

Kamala is a non-starter, she's Dan Quayle in a pantsuit.

If Biden leaves too soon, it could help RFKjr, can't have that. It could also galvanize any attack media on (Gavin? Hillary?) too early and give that time to work. Can't have that either.

And Biden won't survive another year, much less to the 2024 election (either via health or impeachment exposure).

The DNC is in a bad spot, and even the depths of media fluffing we're seeing on display aren't going to get them far in this environment.

[–]emorej[S] 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

The DNC is in a bad spot...

... and all trends point towards it getting worse by the week.

If Biden leaves too soon, it could help RFKjr

I tend to think the opposite: that liabilities such as:

  • too old
  • too Ukraine-tainted (money-making and war-losing)
  • too Fauci-tainted

... would not be regarded, by persuadable voters, as applying to Gavin, JD, or even Hillary (or Michelle, if she could be induced to re-enter the shitshow).

[–]rundown9 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I don't know why people think MO is the golden ticket, maybe for BNMW Democrats, but across the general electorate, I'm not seeing it.

Most people will just see another term of BHO in the works, yes I know Dems salivate at that, but not everyone.

[–]FThumbStay thirsty, my friends 6 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 0 fun7 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Good points.

My case for an early exit by Biden helping RFKjr is the belief it would force the media to start talking about a competitive primary. The reason the media is giving for not covering RFK is that there's no Dem primary to report on.

[–]CaelianPost No Toasties 7 insightful - 4 fun7 insightful - 3 fun8 insightful - 4 fun -  (0 children)

Kamala is a non-starter, she's Dan Quayle in a pantsuit.

Obliviously on he she sails
With marks not quite as good as Quayle's

-- From Calvin Trillin's 2004 book Obliviously On He Sails: The Bush Administration in Rhyme

[–]tsanazi2 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

My GOP analysis is: Trump will win the nomination. If he's convicted before the general he'll lose (even if the conviction is later overturned after the election). If he's not convicted before election day he's got roughly a coin toss.

[–]captainramen🇺🇸🛠️ MAGA Communist 🛠️🇺🇸 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Railroading Trump is pushing American racial unity to unseen levels.

Convicting him is only going to increase his support among minorities especially blacks. There is simply no way the Democrats can credibly claim victory without the black vote. They will have to blatantly steal the election to pull it off.

[–]rundown9 7 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 0 fun8 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If he's convicted before the general he'll lose

Meh, will probably boost his numbers, which have been rising all the way through his legal shitshow.

[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 9 insightful - 1 fun9 insightful - 0 fun10 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

If he's convicted before the general he'll lose

BS. That's like thinking they "Got 'em" with the pussy tape. If anything, it will bolster his appeal.

[–]tsanazi2 7 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 0 fun8 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Kudos for thinking strategically. Your B3 confuses me, but the rest seems reasonably thought out.

Apparently you're extrapolating from the recent anti-Biden MSM pieces that Biden will soon be out. Fair enough.

If Biden is out by November 1 then I think the primary goes on as usual. Kamala would retain some establishment support by virtue of identity politics, and she has more support than you give her credit for, but fear not she could never win a primary. Never.

I don't see the DNC reversing their South Carolinization. SC matters alot to Biden, but I'm not certain it matters to anyone else. The DNC will not let go of their rigging the primaries with super-delegates, ... so it's hard to say any populist win. And if they did win I think the DNC is capable of nullifying the victory and installing their puppet.

In this Biden-out scenario RFK is out unless Biden's departure somehow means RFK's cancellation by the MSM is itself cancelled.

I think it would boil down to Newsom (the favorite) and Pritzker.

But this just covers the Biden is out by November 1 scenario. There's so many more possibilities including possibilities on the GOP side. Just remember, if there's a whiff in the MSM that Biden might drop out that means he's absolutely done; it will happen fast.

[–]emorej[S] 8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 0 fun9 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

if there's a whiff in the MSM that Biden might drop out that means he's absolutely done; it will happen fast.

There is now much more than a whiff: Breaking Points h/t Tom Neuburger

[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 9 insightful - 2 fun9 insightful - 1 fun10 insightful - 2 fun -  (2 children)

Kamala SHOULD be a deal-breaker for a Biden 2nd term. It highlights the bad decision making from the start. If she is back on the ticket as VP, the Tulsi should be the obvious choice for (R) VP, so she can destroy Kamala a 2nd time.

[–]InumaGaming Socialist 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

... I'd vote for any ticket with Tulsi

[–]FThumbStay thirsty, my friends 8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 0 fun9 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

It highlights the bad decision making from the start.

She was an insurance policy against impeachment.

[–]tsanazi2 7 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 0 fun8 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I'm waiting for the first reporting that Biden's own team is "considering options."

[–]tsanazi2 9 insightful - 1 fun9 insightful - 0 fun10 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I'm watching newsnation now and Dan Abrams just posed the question: could Biden pardon Hunter and then resign. That's not from Biden but it's awful close to it.

[–]fugwb 8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 0 fun9 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Sooner or later Biden will pardon Hunter for any wrongdoing past present and if possible, future.