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[–]sdl5 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

What Blackhalo said.

[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

As I discussed yesterday (The Problem Isn't a Housing Shortage, It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy), this bubble is fundamentally an artifact of central bank and government policies...

...I am not talking about people of modest means who acquired rental properties by scrimping and saving their earned income and making sacrifices for decades--a strategy that is part of Self-Reliance; I'm talking about the already-wealthy who are seeking to "maximize returns" on their unearned "surplus capital."

A systemic driver of this bidding war for rental properties is the "AirBnB" model of monetizing individual properties to compete with hotels and resorts for lodging.

It's not uncommon to visit tourist-magnet cities and see entire buildings with only a few lights on, as many units are owned by the wealthy and left empty, as rents are not as important as having a safe place to "park surplus capital." Thousands of other units have been pulled from the long-term rental market to reap the higher returns...

There is no way the bottom 90% can afford homes at today's bubble valuations, so the pool of buyers is limited to the top 10% already-wealthy, whose appetite for owning "surplus capital" rentals vanishes once the lofty weekly rates and low vacancies reverse into high vacancies and collapsing rental rates.

[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

It's the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy

As is stated in the video I linked above, the wealthy can afford to weather a downturn longer than most. It's not until the poors are underwater that you will see foreclosures and an actual cascade in falling prices.

One of the reasons the housing market is locked up at record highs is that those wealthy "investors" who bought during Covid at 0% for much less than current prices, is that they aren't yet in danger of losing money. And even if they are in danger of taking a loss, they can hold out for much longer.

The 1% down Zillow loans (at 7% interest), are the ones that will really kick off the downturn. That is still a ways off. I say over 6 months.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

And when it finally begins I suspect it will proceed rapidly and catastrophically.

[–]BlackhaloPurity Pony: Pусский бот 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Exactly correct.