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[–]Tom_Bombadil 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

That's along the same lines, but I was going for the over the top scientific certainty, which functionally maxes out at 5, so I went for 6.

https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-5-sigma-means-0423423/

The table below summarizes various σ levels down to two decimal places.

σ (sigma) Confidence that result is real. 1σ 84.13%. 1.5 σ 93.32%. 2 σ 97.73%. 2.5 σ 99.38%. 3 σ 99.87%. 3.5 σ 99.98%. 4 σ 100% (almost).

For some fields of science, however, 2-sigma isn’t enough, nor 3 or 4-sigma for that matter. In particle physics, for instance, scientists work with million or even billions of data points, each corresponding to a high energy proton collision. In 2012, CERN researchers reported the discovery of the Higgs boson and press releases tossed the term 5-sigma around. Five-sigma corresponds to a p-value, or probability, of 3×10-7, or about 1 in 3.5 million. This is where you need to put your thinking caps on because 5-sigma doesn’t mean there’s a 1 in 3.5 million chance that the Higgs boson is real or not. Rather, it means that if the Higgs boson doesn’t exist (the null hypothesis) there’s only a 1 in 3.5 million chance the CERN data is at least as extreme as what they observed.

[–]JasonCarswell 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

For him it's a little simpler. He just let's the machine go and counts all the marbles on the floor after a few hours. No marbles no problems.