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[–]MarkTwainiac 5 insightful - 2 fun5 insightful - 1 fun6 insightful - 2 fun -  (4 children)

US trans advocacy groups say that at least 0.6 percent of the US population is trans. This would mean that 1.98 million people in the US are trans.

So using the 2020 homicide figures, which are unusually high compared to other years, they'd have a murder rate closer to 1.85/100,000.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[–]oyasuminasai50 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

If you use 0.6% of the population are trans as you did vs. 0.5% like I did then you do get closer to 1.85. You could round and say 2 per 100,000 trans people are murdered, compared to 5 per 100,000 which is what I saw as the murder rate for the general population.

[–]MarkTwainiac 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Thank you oyasuminasai50 for checking my figures. I am generally good at arithmetic, but when it comes to turning total homicide figures into rates out of 100,000 of the population, I never feel wholly certain that my computations are correct.

Using FBI homicide stats from 2016, The Violence Policy Center in the USA reported in 2019 that

The homicide rate for black male victims was 37.12 per 100,000. In comparison, the overall rate for male homicide victims was 8.29 per 100,000. For white male homicide victims it was 4.39 per 100,000. The homicide rate for female black victims was 5.07 per 100,000. In comparison, the overall rate for female homicide victims was 1.97 per 100,000. For white female homicide victims it was 1.55 per 100,000.

https://vpc.org/studies/blackhomicide19.pdf

In that same year, 2016, the HRC says 21 trans people died of homicide in the US. All of them natal males.

So that would mean these guys are certainly far, far less likely to die of homicide than any other males as well as most - perhaps all- females, right? What's more, young black males who ID as trans in the US are many, many times less likely to die of homicide than other black males of their same age and life circumstances.

[–]oyasuminasai50 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

These are good statistics. It's a dishonest metric, there's no two ways about it. And frankly, several years ago, I probably believed it. It's frightening how the culture today allows such misinformation to spread. And there's almost no room to set the record straight because it will be viewed as bigoted towards a certain group, even if you're unequivocally correct.

And this is why I'm skeptical of some nonprofits - like the HRC - whose funding relies on constantly drumming up panic around a social problem that is largely dissipating (anti-LGBT discrimination). It allows dishonesty to flourish.

[–]MarkTwainiac 4 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 0 fun5 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Thank you oyasuminasai50 for replying.

My impression is that young black males who ID as trans are 15-20 times LESS likely to die of homicide than black males of their same age who don't ID as trans. Does that compute in your view?

I agree that what these non-profits like HRC are doing is drumming up panic over dissipating or non-existent threats. Yes, "LGBT" discrimination and assaults still do occur. But honestly, the situation is nothing like in the 1960s, 70s or 80s. Orgs like HRC seem hell-bent on convincing "LGBT" people that the rest of the world wants them/us dead. This strikes me as not only dishonest, but as a form of psychological warfare/terrorism against the very group(s) these bodies are supposed to be advocating for.