I think that is such a terrible analysis to the point I believe it is Russian propaganda. There's much I took issue with, but this is what gave me pause:

Due to the losses the Russian military has suffered, it seems possible that once Russia has conquered the whole of the Donbas (assuming that it can even do that), Moscow will go over to the defensive militarily and offer a ceasefire as the initial basis for peace negotiations. The West will then face a stark choice: between accepting this and using economic means to pressure Russia into offering acceptable terms; or on the other hand encouraging and arming Ukraine to launch a massive counter-offensive.

It makes capitulating to the Russians sound so very reasonable. But he's convieniently leaving out that's not the entirety of the Russian forces fighting. That's conscript troops with mostly old surplus equipment fighting in Ukraine.

Russia has 850,000 active personnel and 250,000 in reserve. Also a draft.

Now who would want to put the message out there that poor Russia's weak army is all tuckered out, couldn't possibly be a threat, so we should stop instigating with lethal aid? Very suspicious.

Reminds me of when Russian propaganda site Zerohedge was shilling the theory the Russian troop build up was just part of a normal exercise, no reason to do anything, so stop worrying. Same tune Ruskie Propaganda likes to sing.

I still haven't read what I consider a compelling reason not to bleed the fuck out of Russia. I think it's a Capital Idea 🧐