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[–]weavilsatemyface 4 insightful - 2 fun4 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 2 fun -  (13 children)

From the first paragraph:

after the full-scale Russian invasion

The Ukrainian propaganda rag writing this doesn't know what a full-scale invasion is.

Russia's military is 1.15 million and at least two million reservists, plus about half a million paramilitary, plus militias from the Donbass, and mercenaries. Forces actually committed to Ukraine in 2022: around 180,000, significantly less than the Ukrainian armed forces, the second largest in Europe. When those troops reached they end of their service term, they were rotated out with second force of 200,000, most of whom still have not been deployed to combat.

Of course Russia cannot deploy conscripts without a declaration of war, nor would they wish to empty their military from the entire country. But even so, Russia could easily double their deployed forces if they wanted to. They are still fighting with one hand behind its back: the longer this war goes, the more they disarm NATO, which the EU economies will never afford to rearm, and the more Ukrainian nazis are eliminated. The last thing Russia wants at this point is a quick victory followed by twenty years of nazi terrorist attacks.

[–]Site_rly_sux 7 insightful - 1 fun7 insightful - 0 fun8 insightful - 1 fun -  (12 children)

Should be a simple 3 day operation right?

Oh by the way

https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1644659476249686016

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Should be a simple 3 day operation right?

That's what the American General Mark Milley said.

Remember that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is a political position. Milley's job is to say what his bosses want him to say, not to give an honest appraisal of the military situation. He's certainly done his job perfectly: he hasn't said a single true thing during the entire war.

https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1644659476249686016

That's impossible. Russia ran out of tanks, trucks, fuel and weapons in March 2022, and have been reduced to human wave attacks of soldiers armed with nothing but shovels for the last year.

You shouldn't treat Orynx's numbers as reliable, even for OSINT they are extremely sketchy, with many biases, double counting (multiple pictures of the same vehicle counted as separate captures/kills), wrongly identifying Ukrainian vehicles as Russian losses, counting as lost vehicles that have no apparent damage, accepting images that have obviously been photoshopped etc. Its quite likely that Orynx's numbers are exaggerated by 50% or even more. So if you take that figure of "10,000" you can probably halve it to get a more realistic figure.

Orynx claims that there are only 3100 lost/destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. Come on -- this is just insulting. The Ukrainian forces have displayed bravery and fighting skill but the idea that they have a 3:1 advantage in vehicle kills is not plausible:

  • From the beginning of the war, Russia has had the advantage in drones, and air superiority.
  • In recent months, that air superiority has become almost complete ownership of the sky, as Ukraine air defense has been degraded to almost nothing.
  • Russia has the advantage in guided artillery and missiles in numbers, range and available munitions -- Russia fires about 20,000 artillery shells a day, while Ukraine has severe shell shortages, firing about 1000 a day. They're so short of artillery that they've had to reduce the number of shells they fire at civilian targets in the Donbass.

Ukrainian forces would be doing well if they managed a 1:1 ratio. 3:1 or more is not credible.

[–]Site_rly_sux 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Okay and was general milley correct about - it will only take 72 hours?

Lol what the fuck is this effort post when the entire planet knows the ruzzians have failed after over 1 year lol

The fact that you unironically link the paedophile armchair copelord is hilarious.

50% ? Wow

That's a high number

It's so high that you'll have a really easy time finding someone to back up that number with a bit more credibility than the paedophile copelord.

Really easy infact any minute now

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

was general milley correct about - it will only take 72 hours?

Of course not. Russia's initial military force in the Kiev region was nowhere near enough to take and hold the city, it was just large enough to be a plausible feint to force Ukraine to move troops from the Donbass back to defend Kiev.

Early in the "special operation" (invasion), Russia fully intended to negotiate a peaceful resolution (from a position of strength, of course) but Boris Johnson of the UK convinced Zelensky not to agree to peace talks. But that opportunity is long gone now.

the entire planet knows the ruzzians have failed

Russia has occupied a fifth of Ukraine, liberated most of Donbas, has control of a land corridor to Crimea, they've done it with quite reasonable casualties for a war against a modern army, they have absolutely decimated the Ukrainian army taking it from the second biggest in Europe to something that is having to literally kidnap 16 year old boys and 50 year old men off the streets and send them to the front with no training, they have emptied NATO's warehouses leaving NATO begging places like Brazil and Korean to send weapons to Ukraine, and you think Russia has lost???

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

I don't understand this idea that Russia wanted a fast victory. That comes entirely from the fear-mongering of General Milley, who invented this "72 hours" meme in order to scare the US congress into writing Ukraine a blank cheque.

Russia's original stated aims for this "special operation" were:

  1. Liberate Donetsk and Luhansk.
  2. Ensure that Ukraine would remain neutral, outside of NATO, and could not host American nuclear weapons.
  3. Denazify the Ukrainian state.

(There may have been unstated aims as well.) There was never any time frame given for success in the operation.

Number 1 is all but done. Number 2 is also succeeding. By NATO's own rules, while Ukraine's borders are in dispute, they cannot accept Ukraine as a member. Not that they have much appetite to do so. NATO might be willing to let Ukrainians die to weaken Russia, but they have no intention of getting into a war where Russian missiles start hitting their own countries. (Aside from Poland, which is mad.)

Number 3 is the important one. A quick victory would not denazify Ukraine, it would just leave the Nazis alive to fester and create their own "Stab In The Back" myth. If Zelensky negotiated a peace treaty now, the nazis would blame "the perfidious jewish comedian" for stabbing them in the back when they were (in their imagination) about to defeat Russia.

This is why Russia has decided on a war of attrition. Let Ukraine keep throwing men into the meat grinder. Russia is self-sufficient in fuel, munitions and equipment, their economy is doing better than Germany's, and they can afford to take a year, two years, three years, four years to just keep grinding Ukraine down until their armed forces collapse. Ukraine is not self-sufficient in fuel, munitions, equipment, or even money. All they have left is the blood of their people, which NATO is willing to spend freely.

And if Ukraine tries a big offensive to take Crimea, that's fine too. Let the Ukrainian army break its back on the Russian defences, after which Russia can take its time denazifying the rest of the country.

[–]Site_rly_sux 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Hahahaha

Yeah you're right, they absolutely wanted this to drag on a year.

That's why they got the whole vdv airborne dead on day 1

That's why Igor Kovalenko, the FSB spy chief, picked out his Kyiv apartment

That's why they packed their initial invasion vehicles with parade uniforms.

That's why they rented storage lockups in Ukraine pre-war and filled them with parade items

That's why Putin went on tv on Feb 23rd to proclaim that the Ukrainian army is rising up against the kyiv regime

The ruzzians absolutely expected this to go on for a year lol. That's why Putin expected to be in Kyiv for May 9th.

And that's why RIA novosti accidentally printed their article on Feb 24th proclaiming the new union state of Belarus, ukraine and ruzzia

And that's why no mobilisation was planned

And thats why Nabiulina didn't repatriate the foreign reserves

Yes, you're a genius, you said

I don't understand this idea that Russia wanted a fast victory

And all it took for you to say that was ignore all the evidence going against you

Lol you fucking ruZtard moron

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Yeah you're right, they absolutely wanted this to drag on a year.

I believe that Putin hoped for an instant collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces, allowing a rapid take over of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kharkov oblasts after Russia's feint towards Kiev, followed by peace negotiations from a position of strength. But Boris Johnson scuppered the peace negotiations, convincing Zelensky that with Britain and America's support Ukraine could win, and the Ukraine armed forces turned out to be tougher than expected. So Putin immediately swapped to his fallback plan B: a long war of attrition.

Unlike America, whose policy is to invade countries with no idea what happens after Shock And Awe, Russia doesn't go to war without a plan, a fallback plan, and a Plan C if the first two fail.

From Russia's position, it doesn't matter how long the war goes, so long as:

  1. they are winning ✓
  2. they're not taking too many casualties ✓
  3. and the Russian economy continues to do well ✓

So long as those three conditions continue to hold, the longer the war goes on, the better it is for Russia. If it continues long enough for Ukraine to collapse, they will be able to take all five oblasts I listed above, plus Odessa.

Even before the Russian "special operation" invasion started, the USA planned to get them stuck in a long insurgency like Afghanistan in the 1980s, which bled the Soviet Union dry. But this is a perfect example of "generals are always ready to fight the last war again". Ukraine is nothing like Afghanistan. It is flat, not mountainous, and there is nowhere for insurgents to hide. The days when irregular fighters with a handful of Stinger missiles can turn the tide of a guerrilla war are long gone.

This war is an artillery war and it will be won by the side with the most missiles, which is Russia. No matter how brave the Ukrainian conscripts are, they are being decimated by Russian missiles and artillery.

West Ukraine has to stand and fight, or they will lose territory. If they lose territory, they won't have the strength to take it back, and if by some miracle they do, it will then be west Ukraine, not Russia, who has to fight an army of insurgents and separatists.

And after a year of fighting, Zelensky does not dare to even hint at peace negotiations, or his pet Nazis will turn on him. If Ukraine has anything less than total victory, including capturing Crimea, he will always be "that perfidious jewish comedian" who stabbing Ukraine in the back when they were (in their imagination) about to defeat Russia, and his lifespan will be measured in days or weeks before some Banderite kills him.

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Have you been swallowing Ukrainian propaganda bullshit again? Try to be at least a bit discerning between believable bullshit like "the Ghost of Kiev" and unbelievable bullshit. I'm not going to go through those claims one by one, I'm just going to pick three at random:

That's why Putin went on tv on Feb 23rd to proclaim that the Ukrainian army is rising up against the kyiv regime

Never happened. Putin asked the Ukrainian army to lay down their arms or turn on the Ukrainian government but of course there is no reason to think that he expected that they would.

And that's why RIA novosti accidentally printed their article on Feb 24th proclaiming the new union state of Belarus, ukraine and ruzzia

An over-zealous editor for a newspaper wrote a poorly-thought out editorial? Yes, that proves that Ruzza thought the war would be over in a week 🙄

What they actually said.

"Теперь этой проблемы нет — Украина вернулась к России. Это не значит, что будет ликвидирована ее государственность, но она будет переустроена, переучреждена и возвращена в свое естественное состояние части русского мира. В каких границах, в какой форме будет закреплен союз с Россией (через ОДКБ и Евразийский союз или Союзное государство России и Белоруссии)? Это будет решаться уже после того, как будет поставлена точка в истории Украины как анти-России. В любом случае — завершается период раскола русского народа."

In English (according to Google Translate - emphasis in bold by me):

"Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state of part of the Russian world. Within what boundaries, in what form will the alliance with Russia be consolidated (through the CSTO and the Eurasian Union or the Union State of Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put in the history of Ukraine as anti-Russia. In any case, the period of the split of the Russian people is coming to an end."

[–]Site_rly_sux 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (4 children)

You're such a boring tryhard

Try and condense your 18x book length replies into a few bullet points pls

If you at least wrote well it might be rewarding for me to read the eighteen book length replies you gave me. As it stands it's just trash. If you want me to consider your trash views at least condense them so I don't need to waste my time reading 18x trash books

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

Try and condense your 18x book length replies into a few bullet points pls

Oh I'm sorry, are reason, logic and facts too hard for you? Okay let me put it in terms even pro-Ukraine cucks can understand:

  • Ukraine are the bad guys in this war.
  • USA and NATO played Ukraine for fools.
  • Ukrainian propaganda is bullshit that doesn't fool anyone paying attention.
  • And now they are doomed. Poland is waiting for Ukraine to fall so they can take Galicia.
  • Whatever is left will be stolen by US and EU corporations.

[–]Site_rly_sux 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Thanks for condensing. I see now that it's all just you're feelings. Notice how there's not a single referenable fact in your list - just your Ztard feelings. Thanks for confirming

Like for example in a similar list, I could remind you that the "ghost of Kyiv" was a fabrication by pro-Ukraine twitter users and not the result of any official policy. Or I could remind you how ruzzian officials have clearly stated that the war is over biolabs and black magic, not NATO belligerence. These are all facts we could link to and reference.

In your list, it's just your silly Ztard feelings.

No wonder you like pedo cringelord

[–]weavilsatemyface 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Notice how there's not a single referenable fact in your list

Oh, like your comments?

The references are in the posts you refused to read and dismiss as "book length replies".

the "ghost of Kyiv" was a fabrication by pro-Ukraine twitter users

The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) invented the Ghost of Kiev.

ruzzian officials have clearly stated that the war is over biolabs

You know that countries can go to war over more than one reason, right? The Ukrainian biolabs are well down the list of reasons for the special operation. You do know that the biolabs are real, and Hunter Biden arranged funding for them through Metabiota and Rosemont Seneca Partners? When asked if the US was funding research into bioweapons in Ukraine, Victoria Nuland confirmed the labs exist, refused to answer whether they are developing bioweapons, but said that they were taking steps to ensure that these dangerous totally not bioweapons harmless research materials don't get captured by the Russians.

and black magic

Oh the irony 😄 😁

Quote: In Ukraine, a resident of the Nikolaev region, Vasily Romanishin, who considers himself a sorcerer, was accused of spying for the Russian "Empire of the Strongest Witches".