AI predicts coronavirus 53 million dead, some doctors disagree

submitted by jamesK_3rd from forbes.com

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[–]SuperConductiveRabbi 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

"I started with day over day growth,” he told me, using publicly available data released by China. “[I then] took that data and dumped it into an AI neural net using a RNN [recurrent neural network] model and ran the simulation ten million times. That output dictated the forecast for the following day. Once the following day’s output was published, I grabbed that data, added it to the training data, and re-ran ten million times.”

This idiot just trained an RNN to very, very inefficiently determine the coefficients in the polynomial function the Chinese government is using to produce the reported numbers. A Twitter user discovered the model weeks ago, and his predictions conform to within 0.1%, with his model having an R2 of 0.9999, proving beyond a shadow of a doubt that the published numbers are an estimate at best, intentionally fake at worst. https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225450497827647488

[–]jamesK_3rd[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

The real problem is that who knows if the data given by the Chinese is even remotely ban park correct, they aren't exactly beacons of transparency.

I think this will likely mimic most of the other doomsday modeling out there which is generally incorrect, typically in the "climate science" realm.