Special Report: Emergency Situation as Prigozhin Goes Nuclear Option

submitted by RedItBurn from simplicius76.substack.com

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[–]RedItBurn[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Simplicius clearly has a "pro Russian" bias (whether you care or not), but does some of the most detailed breakdowns on the situation in Ukraine, with citations, videos, articles, etc.

[–]Dregan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (10 children)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/15/wagner-boss-russian-troop-positions-ukraine/

Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly made proposal to Ukrainian intelligence officers in exchange for withdrawal from Bakhmut

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, told Ukrainian officers that Russian military was struggling with ammunition The leader of the Wagner mercenary group offered to reveal the location of Russian troops to Ukraine in exchange for a withdrawal of Kyiv's forces from the besieged city of Bakhmut, according to a purportedly leaked top-secret document.

Yevgeny Prigozhin approached Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate on a number of occasions with the proposal as it appeared his forces would fail to capture the Donetsk region town, the Washington Post reported.

Kyiv spurned the offer because its officials did not trust Prigozhin, a known ally of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and thought his offer could have been disingenuous.

Details of the approach were revealed in an assessment from a major leak of classified US material via the Discord social media platform.

A heavy price The US intelligence highlighted several encounters between Prigozhin and Ukrainian intelligence officers, including meetings in Africa, where Wagner provides security for a number of governments.

The Wagner leader reportedly voiced concerns over the heavy price his mercenaries had paid spearheading Russia’s push to capture Bakhmut, the bloodiest and single-longest battle since the war broke out.

According to one document, Prigozhin told Ukrainian officers that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies and urged Kyiv to hit Moscow’s forces harder.

He also advised Kyiv to launch an offensive towards the border of Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, while Russian troop morale was low.

[–]RedItBurn[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

I remember those reports. I don't believe them myself. Though, Prigozhin's actions and public statements certainly opened him up to this kind of thing.

[–]Dregan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (8 children)

Ya I don't believe a single thing this guy has to say. Colluding on both sides and been caught lying on several occasions it's impossible to discern. In time I think we'll understand the motives behind it.

[–]RedItBurn[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

IMO, the motives are ego, attention, and ambition plus add a dose of insanity, stress, or PTSD.

Consider his many recent statements, especially around the end of the Bakhmut battle. He was basically acting as if only Wagner was doing anything or competent. Fast-forward to June, Kiev launches their "counter-offensive" and RU does better than expected without Kiev even reaching a major defensive line. Further, everyone in RU has been ignoring Prigozhin, which is a major trigger for Narcissism.

Some people have pointed out that you can't just uproot a military force with supplies, etc in an instant, so this was probably pre-planned. However, there also doesn't appear to be much of a plan either. Keep in mind, Progozhin has no military training or experience, and is not a military commander. He's a CEO and figure-head. So maybe this nonsensical plan really did come from him, and not one of Wagner's commanders.

[–]Newmug 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Seems to me like a plan to convince Ukraine to trust him. Then he'll fool them somehow.

[–]Dregan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (5 children)

Looks like it's over...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12230141/Wagner-chief-agrees-escalate-END-mercenary-groups-march-Moscow.html

[–]RedItBurn[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Yep, though I can't stand the daily mail, it's such a trash website and makes shit up all the time. RT has half-a-dozen articles confirming it.

https://www.rt.com/russia/578640-kremlin-wagner-deal-details/

[–]Dregan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Right on thx for the links and I hear ya bout the daily mail.

[–]RedItBurn[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

A followup from Simplicius

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/prigozhins-siege-ends-postmortem?publication_id=1351274&isFreemail=true

[–]Dregan 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

"The entire production was in fact an oligarch-funded, perhaps Western-backed coup that was meant to topple Putin. Shoigu and Gerasimov were merely the cover to convince Wagner troops to march on the Kremlin. You see, Shoigu provides a brilliantly convenient target because troops are disgruntled with him. So all Priggy had to do was tell his troops we’re going to take out Shoigu and hand over the reins to Putin and it was easy convincing".

My money's on this especially after the false flag missile strike he claimed killed his troops. He's a known liar and the timing of this coup couldn't have come at a better time.

[–]RedItBurn[S] 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

He's a known liar and the timing of this coup couldn't have come at a better time.

After skimming several other sources, a number of them seem to think this mutiny was pre-planned, and not spontaneous. Obviously, that video which supposedly justified this protest was fake. But even if it really was a missile that hit their base, there are a lot of questions about where it came from, whether it was mistaken friendly-fire, etc. It's a lot to go from some random explosion in the outskirts of a camp to taking over part of a town and driving military-hardware straight towards Moscow.

Talk is one thing, as Priggy has been a lot of talk, but going from a fake or overblow video to marching on Moscow and (if true) shooting down several RU aircraft, his best bet for survival is to find a hole to hide in somewhere. Being on the battlefield with limited access to info might give him a short-time-span to fool his own troops.