This Duran broadcast took place in August 2022 but I'm posting the transcription now because of the extremely positive economic news being reported for Turkey.
AC: Arestovich reporting Russia using drones from Iran (grain of salt) but Russia and Turkey are talking about manufacturing the Bayraktar drones in Russia; will discuss flareup between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh; Syria; Ukraine; the grain and wheat shipments, the cooperation they have there; and general discussion re Ukraine and NATO.
AM: also economic links between Turkey and Russia. Nord Stream 2 is switched off, Nord Stream 1 is barely working. The various Ukrainian pipelines now basically closing down and the Yamal pipeline is going in the opposite direction - from Germany to Poland and from Poland presumably to Ukraine. So of all the big pipelines that leaves only Turk Stream. Talk of building spurs from Turk Stream to Hungary, Serbia, various places so they'll probably talk about that.
Turkey going through enormous economic crisis, connecting itself to Russia would make huge sense, may be way to strengthen Turkish lira. Turkey can provide a lot of the things Russia will have problems replacing quickly due to sanctions; not high end tech but more like furniture making which the Turks are quite good at.
But the key discussions will be on geopolitics. Notice how these two play chess with each other and against each other at the same time. We have the flareup in Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan attacking Armenian troops. Russian peacekeeping forces have been deployed. The timing of this is right before Erdogan meets with Putin is not by chance - AM thinks it's Erdogan reminding Putin he has his particular points of leverage he can play, you may be more powerful but you need me, I can make trouble in your backyard, in the Caspian with my ally Azerbaijan, etc.
They'll want to talk about Syria. Erdogan now openly saying the Americans in Syria are sponsors of terrorism and the big destabilizing force in Syria and he wants all the American troops to be pulled out. But when he talks about terrorists, he's talking about different ones than the Russians are. Russians talk about jihadi terrorists, Erdogan is intensely relaxed about them, even supportive of them. talks about Kurdish fighters he defines as terrorists.
The US has backed both so Putin and Erdogan both agreed now that the US must leave Syria. This has also long been the Iranian position as well. Confrontation by Russia or Iran would be problematic but Turkey, as a NATO ally, is in a different position so they'll talk about that.
They'll also talk about negotiations for an end to the Syrian war. Seeing indications that even Erdogan is getting tired of this war. He'd love to see Assad go but the war has become an embarrassment and a weight even for Erdogan.
Ukraine: think it's universally acknowledged by all informed people that Russia is winning the war. Read an article just now in FT that appeared to throw cold water on the Ukrainian's grandiose Kherson offensive, calling it "a limited counter-offensive" and if you drill into the article, serious doubts about whether it's even going to happen at all. Erdogan knows Putin is going to win, which means he will be in control of the northern Black Sea including Odessa, Nikolayev et al. He doesn't want Putin to forget that Turkey also has interests there - economic interests in Ukraine, interests in the grain trade in addition to the military cooperation.
Erdogan has been selling Bayraktar drones to Ukraine to the intense annoyance of Russia. Looks increasingly less likely he'll get the F-16 fighters he wanted from the US, so military cooperation with the Russians as well.
Re: your point - so interesting how often Erdogan meets with Putin, far more often than he meets with the president of the US, who is the leader of NATO. And it's well-known that he actively dislikes Biden. So that dynamic plays out, too. Expects they'll work more closely on Syria, on economic cooperation over gas and grain.
AC: everyone knows that Erdogan despises Biden and his administration, he actually got along well with the Trump administration. Shouldn't forget Erdogan has the NATO-Finland-Sweden card up his sleeve still that he can pull out at any time - and he will, you mentioned the F-16s (US reneged on what they promised him to agree to Finland and Sweden joining NATO?).
As a Greek - and we've had our issues with Erdogan - but speaking as an outsider looking in, this is how diplomacy is done. Russia and Turkey have had a rocky relationship over past 5 years or so, came close to direct conflict over the shooting down of the plane over Syria (?); but despite their conflicts wrt Nagorno-Karabakh and Syria and even Ukraine, they always manage to sit down and talk to each other and work out their problems. Turkey did not impose sanctions, Russians are traveling to Turkey this summer, Turkey about to adopt the MIR card. They find a way to get along, to co-exist and prosper. Erdogan and Russia are kind of a model for how geopolitics should be done, do you agree?
AM: absolutely. Greece and Turkey used to manage this but we seem to have lost that skill. So now we're at the place where Russia defines Turkey as a friendly country, despite all the differences they have, yet a few days ago included Greece in category of unfriendly countries. Who would have thought of this a few years ago? It speaks to Russia's ability to swallow all of Erdogan's provocations to keep diplomatic lines open.
Erdogan may be an amateur, but he does do diplomacy and with flair. He's always at risk of overplaying his hand but always knows how to draw back. He sees and takes advantages of the opportunities that present, like the war in Ukraine. He's positioned himself as a critical middleman between Ukraine and Russia and he's going to take advantage of that. And you have to admit he does it with great skill.
AC: A statement from Stoltenberg about NATO and Ukraine that not many people are talking about: "In this conflict, NATO has two tasks: supporting Ukraine and preventing the war from escalating into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia." In previous months the goals of NATO were to defeat Russia; to arm Ukraine so they could defeat Russia - Russia was losing, Ukraine's going to win and NATO was going to give them the equipment so they win; to give Russia a bloody nose and effect regime change in Moscow; to stop any advancement by Russia in Ukraine. What do you make of this statement in the context of what's going on in Ukraine?
AM: agree it's a very important statement and echoes some of the mood music coming out of Washington. They see the signs. Thinks even the most fervid supporters of Ukraine are starting to understand that Ukraine is losing.
Brief rundown of military events: Russians have broken through the frontlines across Donbass, captured the fortified village of Pesky, apparently broken into the important town of Bakhmut. Everyone can see that Ukraine is losing the battle in Donbass. Back in April Stoltenberg was saying they needed to provide as much military equipment to Ukraine as possible so they could win the battle in Donbass; now even he can see that Ukraine is going to lose it. We now have admissions, e.g., in FT, that any counter-offensive in Kherson would be a limited one.
So Ukraine is clearly losing the war and it's becoming a major economic drain. Learned today that the Western powers are paying all the wages of the Ukrainian armed forces, so they have in effect become a mercenary force for the West and one that's losing. So the West needs to find some way to start to draw back.
So now we see criticisms in Western media of Zelensky; the National Review piece saying that Zelensky is being prepared as the fall guy for Ukraine's eventual defeat; and now this statement from Stoltenberg that says, yeah, we need to support Ukraine but need to prevent a war between NATO and Russia.
AM thinks Ukraine's defeat will have a major effect on political alignments in Europe. Everyone, esp. in eastern and central Europe will see this as a major defeat for NATO, at least for the Biden administration. Think we'll eventually see a shake-out with different countries starting to reassess their policies. Erdogan is already doing it, that's why he's gone to Sochi - he's preparing for Turkey to be in the position it needs to be in when Russia wins the war.
We'll see other countries - Bulgaria, the various Yugoslav republics, perhaps Romania and some of the central European states like the Czech Republic and very likely Slovakia and first and foremost, Hungary - are all going to start reassessing their foreign policies and linkages. Because they're going to say that at the end of the day, in the event of war, the US and NATO are not as strong as they made themselves out to be.
(edit: formatting)
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