The Duran - China focused on Taiwan, Biden White House faces colossal foreign policy blunder

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[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable[S,M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

This was an excellent discussion despite its relatively short length, just over 18 minutes. Some highlights:

  • from the point of view of the Chinese people, China has lost face because Pelosi went to Taiwan after China told the US under no circumstances should she go. This is a BIG deal and it will never be forgotten or forgiven.

  • Polling data coming out of Taiwan shows that not only were they not happy to see Pelosi but most people opposed the visit. The end result may be the weakening of the current government, which is supported by the US.

  • There are long-term foreign policy implications vis-a-vis the entire region, with many of the political leaders there horrified by the recklessness and arrogance of Pelosi's visit. South Korean leaders declined to meet with her. The ASEAN bloc - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Phillippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - that have tilted toward the US while remaining friendly with China may well begin distancing themselves from the US.

  • This stunt has accelerated China's resolve to re-integrate Taiwan, and that will be their primary focus in the immediate future. Ergo, the vast military exercises that they openly describe as a rehearsal for the blockading of Taiwan. This will affect the supply of microchips produced and exported by Taiwan.

  • China will also begin to strengthen and harden their economy in preparation for the inevitable sanctions. They import raw materials and export manufactured goods. They now have a reliable source for the raw materials in Russia and will be working to reduce the importance of exports to the West to their overall economy, which will ultimately have an impact on supply chains and inflation.

  • China will begin to actively seek anti-American military alliances, something they have avoided in the past; they've always competed against the US but maintained friendly relations because it was mutually profitable to do so.

As Alex points out, just when you think you've seen peak stupidity and incompetence from this administration, they outdo themselves.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Updates from a more recent video:

In general, China has begun to ramp up what they've done wrt Taiwan; begun to take some actions against the US, specifically sanctions against Pelosi and her family; Chinese foreign minister made a statement about wanting closer relations with Russia; and China made statements they're going to start to minimize their cooperation and contact with the US. This consists of:

  • canceling China-US theater commanders talks (Chinese and US military commanders in the Pacific will no longer be talking and coordinating)

  • canceling China-US defense policy coordination talks (Chinese Defense Ministry and Pentagon)

  • canceling China-US military maritime consultative agreement (will no longer keep US informed about movement of Chinese war ships)

  • suspending cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants

  • suspending cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters

  • suspending cooperation against transnational crimes (internet related, IT, hacking)--

  • suspending cooperation on counter narcotics (heroin in that part of the world)

  • suspending talks on climate change, a particular dig at Biden himself who has repeatedly said he wants to prioritize talks with China on this

The more the Chinese play these cards with the blockades and sanctions, the more China is going to understand how strong their cards are. Alexander said he got the sense when Russia began the Ukraine operation, they underestimated the strength of their own position. He thinks they were quite nervous about the sanctions when the major ones were first issued and have been surprised at the resilience of their economy and society in the face of them. He thinks a similar thing will happen with China. They will survive sanctions, which like those imposed on Russia, are likely to backfire on the West.

There doesn't appear to have been any strategy behind the Pelosi stunt, the US gained nothing beyond a brief media win. But Alexander thinks there was a strategy: the Biden WH has been talking for months about creating this League of Democracies which it was going to pit against this League of Autocracies. There was a sort of conference and all kinds of people (including that exemplar of democracy-in-actiom, Saudi Arabia!) were invited but not Russia or China. I think they thought, "we'll send Pelosi to Taiwan, she'll make a couple of waves but China won't dare to do anything aggressive or if they do they'll do something stupid like shoot her plane down - so either China will look weak and we'll win over more countries to our League of Democracies, or they'll overreact and that will shock the world and attract countries that fear China to our League of Democracies."

Blinken, Sullivan et al. are ultimately amateurs and they're up against very tough professionals which is what you have in Beijing, so of course they're losing. It's the opposite of the Midas touch with this administration, everything they touch turns to dust instead of gold.