Original tweet.

We showed ONS England data from November did NOT support vaccine efficacy claims. The ONS’s December report claims anomalies we identified are caused by healthy vaccinee effect.

We examined the new ONS data and found NO evidence to support this claim.

 

The healthy vaccinee effect occurs when people closer to death are too ill to be vaccinated and so become concentrated in a shrinking unvaccinated population, thus increasing the group’s mortality rate.

 

NHS recommended that the most critically ill people be prioritised for vaccination in each age group.

However, the ONS not only contradict NHS guidance but also contradict themselves in their own report:

 

If the ONS are right then we would see:

a) The percentage of the unvaccinated in poor health rise as vaccine rollout progresses

b) A steady non-Covid mortality rate among the unhealthy (because they are dying at same rate as they always have done).

 

To support their claim the ONS released the percentage of 70-79 age group with "very poor" health in each vaccination category.

Oddly, the vaccinated population contains a higher percentage of those in very poor health and this increases over time.

 

Surprisingly the unvaccinated population has the LOWEST concentration of the unhealthy and the percentage declines over time.

 

In this unhealthy sub-population we found the non-Covid mortality rate for the unvaccinated is HIGHER than for the vaccinated. Both rates should be equivalent

Again, we see unnatural spikes in non-Covid mortality just after vaccine roll out as seen before in whole population

 

Therefore, those in poorest health were NOT more likely to remain unvaccinated.

Also, there is a rise in non-Covid mortality, coincidental with vaccine rollout that is not only seen in the population as a whole but is also seen in those with the poorest health.

 

We conclude that healthy vaccine effect cannot explain the anomalies we discovered in the ONS data and believe it is up to advocates for this hypothesis to now prove their case using the released data.