I've been following this since the early 2000s and from my perspective the pendulum is starting the back swing. Most of the pushback used to come from the religious right just making arguments about morality and God etc .. the TRAs successfully pinned their "rights" to that of gays, feminism, and racial justice for a long time now. Most of their arguments were obscure academic concepts which has little to no impact on anyone. Most of the religious right arguments were just boiling down to them calling gender ambiguity gross and immoral and icky.

People like me who were just gender critical got ignored for the most part. We said the trans ideology is extremely toxic and regressive. They are never happy just existing. The entire premise of their identity relies on forcing others to recognize them as a certain thing. They must be "validated" to exist. Normies didn't care because they thought it didn't impact them. Then their ideology stuck it's foot in the door and started pushing child transition because the idea of trans kids existing validates the trans adults and implies a narrative of science. Problem is they started transing kids that didn't really want it and also created this trans social contagion phenomenon which replaced the bulimia social contagion. Suddenly this is affecting people's kids and the public is not going to be happy about that.

To me the ratcheting back is pretty obvious. The thing I'm nervous about is the Republicans in the US overstepping with religious arguments and causing the pendulum to push back the other way.