I never said I was pro lockdown.

It kind of had a point right at the start, when we were unsure of mortality and needed time to test treatments.

But once we hit summer it died back and we should have reopened. Right now your odds of dying after admission are less than half of what they were in Spring, and going by the antibody Vs death numbers from London in spring then mortality was 0.25%. So half that now.

I can tell you it is way worse than flu, but it's not bad enough to close a country down.

We probably had 20% infected in spring, we're likely up to over 40% now and there's probably a few people who are naturally immune (best guess 10-15%). Given that the R number of the new Covid variant is a bit higher, we might be looking at another 20% catching it. Mortality about 1/800.

About another 16k dead, but then again it looks like the numbers from autumn on have been seriously overcounted. A lot of our excess deaths have been non Covid, untreated diabetes and heart disease etc.