Population and power

submitted by casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter from (self.debatealtright)

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[–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (8 children)

By the way, in response to putting China at #1, lets see how they deal with their incoming demographic crisis in the next few years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/chinas-aging-population-is-bigger-problem-than-one-child-policy-economists.html

I've said this before, but everything that comes out of Communist China is pure propaganda. They'll hide all the bad stuff in order to make their reputation looks squeaky clean and good. But if that was the case, why do they also have a ton of millionaires fleeing the mainland? Because even they know their nation is built like a house of cards. Ready to fall.

[–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 8 insightful - 1 fun8 insightful - 0 fun9 insightful - 1 fun -  (7 children)

Because even they know their nation is built like a house of cards. Ready to fall.

Western experts and think tanks have been predicting the imminent collapse of China since 2000. I myself have read at least 12 articles in the economist, WSJ, NYT and a variety of elite publications over the last 10 years, predicting an economic collapse and social revolution in China within a few years.

The oppostite has happened. It has gone from strength to strength, consistently maintating solid economic growth and technological development. So forgive me for being bearish on this count.

[–][deleted]  (2 children)

[deleted]

    [–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    And what effect has this actually had? From what I recall, it's not really Feminism that's behind the fall. Chinese women just have really high standards. There's also a gender imbalance. Many males are competing for a chance with just one woman, which creates a lot of cucks in that country.

    [–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

    It wasn't that long ago when China was caught putting actual lead in baby formula. And now we just had the Covid pandemic because they're too lazy to regulate their own wet markets.

    They're far from being perfect or even world leader material. So why haven't they collapsed yet? It's a combination of the West artificially propping them up. Because of their value in sweat shops and rare earth minerals, the other multi-billion companies are happy to bankroll their clumsiness.

    But if say India or Vietnam have competing offers to replace them, then expect the Chinese government to panic quickly. It also explains why they're getting more militarily active in the region. They don't want the rest of Asia to be competitive.

    [–]casparvoneverecBig tiddy respecter[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

    It's a combination of the West artificially propping them up. Because of their value in sweat shops and rare earth minerals, the other multi-billion companies are happy to bankroll their clumsiness.

    This is a myth. Most of the Chinese GDP is generated by state owned enterprises. Sure, western capital and trade has allowed it to accelerate the rate of growth, but it would've reached parity with the US and surpassed it even without Western capital. It would've simply taken longer. Plus the Chinese economy is not dependent on exports.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-kemp-idUSL8N2AW6LX

    They already have the world's largest market for automobiles and this trend will be replicated in other consumer fields.

    Plus, India can't replace China. They don't have the human capital, infrastructure or state capacity to create conditions that can produce goods at the level of China, both in terms of quantity and quality. Neither can Vietnam though Vietnam is much more functional and intelligent than India. But it has a population of 90 million whereas China has 1.26 billion.

    This is why its been so difficult for the US to decouple from China and move its manufacturing firms away from China. There simply isn't any other comparable country

    [–]radicalcentristNational Centrism 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

    This is a myth. Most of the Chinese GDP is generated by state owned enterprises. Sure, western capital and trade has allowed it to accelerate the rate of growth, but it would've reached parity with the US and surpassed it even without Western capital. It would've simply taken longer. Plus the Chinese economy is not dependent on exports. https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-kemp-idUSL8N2AW6LX They already have the world's largest market for automobiles and this trend will be replicated in other consumer fields.

    Ah yes, I've heard about their growing Middle Class. I'll have to do more research on this subject, but it begs the question of how will they keep up with consumption that goes with it? For example, a growing Middle Class will desire more land to live on, but that also means less farm land available and even farm workers to go with it (since we have the same problem in the West, where most kids would rather study for a high paying white collar job than do manual labor picking fruit).

    I've found an article that also seems to question this relationship with China's shift to urbanization but their complete dependence on foreign food imports. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111623/china-food-security-hows-it-going-and-whys-it-important

    Long-term factors affecting China‘s food security include a shrinking rural labour force, the reduction of available farmland by urban development as well as a farmland management system that is an obstacle to modern farming and large-scale cultivation

    This is why its been so difficult for the US to decouple from China and move its manufacturing firms away from China. There simply isn't any other comparable country

    Prior to Covid, Trump was already in the process of moving manufacturing away from China, but for obvious reasons, it came with a lot of backlash and media negativity. Although it is one thing I did agree with him policy wise.

    That said, the future is looking more towards automation anyway, and it would definitely be cheaper to produce robots at home and have them operate locally.

    [–]TheJamesRocket 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

    And now we just had the Covid pandemic because they're too lazy to regulate their own wet markets.

    Thats the official explanation. Unofficially, though, the coronavirus came out of the Wuhan biolaboratory.