The situation looks exceedingly bleak for Ukraine, which might in part explain Macron's recent declarations around sending troops to Ukraine. I translated the important parts of the article:

"A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible" The reports Marianne consulted write that Ukraine's counter-offensive "gradually bogged down in mud and blood and did not result in any strategic gain" and that its planning, conceived by Kiev and Western general staffs, turned out to be "disastrous"

The reports also highlight "the inadequacy of the training of Ukrainian soldiers and officers": due to a lack of officers and a significant number of veterans, these "Year II soldiers" from Ukraine - often trained for "no more than three weeks" - were launched into an assault on a Russian fortification line that proved impregnable.

The reports also highlight that contrary to Ukraine "the Russians have managed their reserve troops well, to ensure operational endurance." According to this document, Moscow reinforces its units before they are completely worn out, mixes recruits with experienced troops, ensures regular rest periods in the rear... and "always had a coherent reserve force to manage unforeseen events."

"To date, the Ukrainian general staff does not have a critical mass of land forces capable of inter-arms maneuver at the corps level capable of challenging their Russian counterparts to break through its defensive line," concludes this confidential defense report, according to which "the gravest error of analysis and judgment would be to continue to seek exclusively military solutions to stop the hostilities". A French officer summarizes: "It is clear, given the forces present, that Ukraine cannot win this war militarily."

"Zelensky would need 35,000 men per month, he's not recruiting half of that, while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers per month," observes a military officer returned from Kiev. In terms of equipment, the balance is just as unbalanced: the failed offensive of 2023 "tactically destroyed" half of Kiev's 12 combat brigades.

It is therefore clear that no Ukrainian offensive can be launched this year. "The West can supply 3D printers to manufacture drones or loitering munitions, but can never print men," notes this report.

What the Russians will do with this tactical success remains to be seen. Will they continue in the current mode of "nibbling and slowly shaking" the entire front line, or will they seek to "break through in depth"? "The terrain behind Avdiivka allows it," signals this recent document, also warning that Western sources tend to "underestimate" the Russians, themselves adept at the practice of "Maskirovka," "appearing weak when strong."