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[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 5 insightful - 1 fun5 insightful - 0 fun6 insightful - 1 fun -  (9 children)

I'm listening to Col. Doug Macgregor and Col. Daniel Davis talking about the situation with Israel-Palestine now. That's the one that threatens to expand into a regional conflict and well beyond, and the US/West needs to quit blocking efforts by other countries, specifically Russia and China, to mediate a resolution once and for all.

Here's some highlights of what Macgregor said about who might end up getting involved in support of Hamas and the Palestinians if the IDF goes into Gaza:

I don't think there's any question about Hezbollah entering and I think the Israelis will be hard pressed to deal with them while simultaneously trying to clear things in the south. Hezbollah has about 100k fighters; 130-140k rockets and missiles with about 40k of them very accurate and deadly, the others not so accurate but if it lands on you you're dead or badly wounded. That's going to have a big impact.

As soon as Hezbollah attacks I think the rest of the Muslim world around Israel will begin to organize to fight and I think it's only a matter of time before the entire region joins the fight against Israel.

The Egyptians have already committed 3 or 4 army divisions to the border with Gaza. I'm told they're going to move as many as 300k troops to the border. That may not seem significant, people may assume they're there to keep the Gazans from pouring into the Sinai. I think that's true but once they have all those forces there and large numbers of people in Gaza who are Arabs are dying, how difficult will it be for General Sisi to stay out of this fight?

We haven't even talked about Jordan. I would be surprised if the king can hold his kingdom together easily because more than half his population is now Palestinian.

Then you have the Iranians in the distance, who I think will only operate through their militias.

We know the Turks are preparing for the contingency of fighting against Israel and us. The Turks are unlike anyone else in the region. Once they commit, if they go to war, they're all in and they'll fight like hell.

And then you have to add in the Russian variable because they've told the Turks, Egyptians and others who are interested in delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza across the beach that they will escort their vessels. So now you have a potential confrontation rearing its head with the Russians. One of the most dangerous things I've heard recently from the Hill is people saying, "now's the time to do in Iran." The Russians are not going to sit there quietly if Iran is suddenly attacked.


Still listening so may add to this as I hear more.

[–]CaelianPost No Toasties 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

I think it's only a matter of time before the entire region joins the fight against Israel.

Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I don't see the other Arab powers joining the fight unless Israel attacks them. They've been watching Israel abusing Palestinians for decades without doing anything about it.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

I do think it is wishful thinking, frankly. The Middle East has undergone some pretty significant changes in the past year and a half and while past allies haven't outwardly rejected the US, their support has diminished as they've looked to reestablish ties among Arab neighbors. No doubt some of this is due to the diplomacy of Russia and China and the fact that they, along with BRICS and the BRI, have a lot more to offer them and without the strings the West always attaches.

These countries may not field actual troops but as Macgregor pointed out about Iran, they could provide financial and operational support enabling their militias to fight. Lots of plausible deniability opportunities there for public consumption, even if their Western counterparts know the true score.

[–]therazorx👹🧹🥇 The road to truth is often messy. 👹📜🕵️🎖️[S] 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (3 children)

It easily gets broader.

China has invested Billions in the region, and while China doesn't like to use their military, they still want to protect their investments, which may result in at least some type of economic warfare from their end, which will inflame things further in affected countries.

Iraq can very easily get pulled in despite currently being a US Vassal state, even if they get pulled in initially on the US side, the populace isn't exactly supportive of the US and for good reason.

You also have the "Stans" that would likely get pulled in. And African countries that are still pissed off from what NATO countries did to them and Libya.

It's incredibly easy for this fuck up to expand and blow up significantly, and given the fact that Israel and the US/West are currently singlehandedly overwriting international law (I should write a post about this, frankly even if people don't give a shit about the Israel/Palestine issue, they should give a damn about how it will personally impact them, because the outcomes of this rewriting will without a doubt affect them), a ton of other countries that came up with and agreed to those laws in the first place, might end up joining the fight just to put a stop to the destruction of shit like the Geneva convention (out of the IMO very valid fear that it will impact them directly as well).

That's without even mentioning the other regions of the world that might have flare ups to take advantage of the situation; South America and Africa at large for example, might very well take advantage of the chaos and the military focus elsewhere to do some fighting of their own against Western vassals in the continents.

We're quickly getting to the point that the majority of the world, not just the region, might have everything to lose by not joining in on a broader conflict, which y'know, ends up being WW3. The most crucial question I don't want an answer to, but need an answer to, is if MAD would still hold then, or if we're all just on our way out in a bunch of huge nuclear fireballs.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (2 children)

Just watched and transcribed Tucker Carlson's interview with Doug Macgregor that u/MeganDelacroix posted and will post some highlights shortly. I would love to see your post on international law because there are so many ways it's been violated by the so-called protectors of democracy and human rights.

[–]therazorx👹🧹🥇 The road to truth is often messy. 👹📜🕵️🎖️[S] 1 insightful - 1 fun1 insightful - 0 fun2 insightful - 1 fun -  (1 child)

Will try my best.

RE the most important part of my thesis, the 411 on it involves three main aspects; Redefinition of "viable targets", redefinition of who counts as a civilian/resident/native and redefinition of what constitutes a genocide.

They're incredibly portent, because to use an extreme hypothetical, let's say some random town in the US is a MAGA city, and some people of that city are more extreme (like "The Base"), and decide to carry out an attack, let's say the Uniparty are in charge, and we're at a point where they're not really trying to hide their fascism anymore.

Based on the redefinitions, the entire city are now viable targets, and it doesn't "violate" the "new" international law to bomb the entire city to "Stamp out terrorism", even if they're all American citizens. Same of course applies to leftists with the uniparty in charge, considering they've already changed laws to turn even benign eco protesters into terrorists.

And of course we've already seen how the shit they've pushed in the last few decades in their "War on terror" has already been used locally.

In other words, redefinition of international law in that fashion, opens the doors for governments to do whatever the fuck they want to civilians anywhere in the world including locally, and the rest of the world can't say shit.

There's far more though, but I'll get to that if I manage to actually write the damn thing.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 1 fun2 insightful - 0 fun3 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

Maybe break it out in pieces since it would be a pretty large undertaking.

What interests me even more is how the entire foundation of the UN as laid out in its charter has been undermined by the US and its globalist allies. I did a post or long comment some time back about how the UN's founding principles were derived in part from the Treaty of Westphalia and the defining of sovereign nations; and how the globalists (called universalists when they started the war that led to the treaty) have been trying to dismantle it ever since, ergo statements from Kissinger and Blair at various points talking about the need to "move beyond Westphalian principles."

The same is true to a large degree of the NATO charter, what its charter says it is and what it has become since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Apt quote:

these people have the memory of a goldfish and the morality of a piranha - bad cattitude

[–]CaelianPost No Toasties 3 insightful - 2 fun3 insightful - 1 fun4 insightful - 2 fun -  (1 child)

The Turks ..., if they go to war, they're all in and they'll fight like hell.

Worse, they'll fight like bashi-bazouks, the "crazy-head" irregular soldiers of the Ottoman Empire. Here is a wonderful old postcard of bashi-bazouks. The text says "Greetings from Constantinople", obviously predating the song.

I only recently learned the meaning of bashi-bazouk, though I remember the word from reading Tintin books as a child. It was one of Captain Haddock's favorite insults.

[–]penelopepnortneyBecome ungovernable 2 insightful - 2 fun2 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 2 fun -  (0 children)

Thank you, professor! It's always a pleasure to learn something new from you. Love that postcard!

[–]3andfro 3 insightful - 1 fun3 insightful - 0 fun4 insightful - 1 fun -  (0 children)

This may be how the world felt watching the events leading to WWII unfold and feeling helpless to inject commonsense actions to avert it.